对于酒店业务，晨星预计收入将在2026财年恢复到2019财年的水平。晨星认为，尽管美联储将降息，房地产销售额以及利润的压力持续，认为买家可能会等到按揭利率降到能让人接受的范围才入市。新地2024财年表现差于预期，纯利同比降9%至190亿港元，主因房地产销售额同比减30.5%以及物业投资的公允价值损失等。公司中期股息为2.8港元，导致全年股息3.75港元，同比降24·2%。Morningstar has downgraded the base profit forecast for shk ppt's 2025 fiscal year by 13%.
According to the Securities Times app, Morningstar's research report stated that it maintains a fair value forecast of 115 Hong Kong dollars for shk ppt (00016). The bank has downgraded the base profit forecast for the company's 2025 fiscal year by 13%, while maintaining the forecast for 2026-2027. It believes that the current valuation of Sun Hung Kai Properties is too low, and Morningstar's preferred option is henderson land (00012), which has a dividend yield of 7.5%, higher than shk ppt's 5.5%. Both companies have a debt-to-equity ratio of 18-22%, which is considered healthy.
Morningstar expects shk ppt's real estate development operating margin in Hong Kong and Mainland China to be between 20-40%, and forecasts a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in investment property income over the next five years. Investment properties are expected to maintain the existing operating margin of 75-80%. Valuing the company's agricultural land reserves using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method is challenging due to the highly uncertain conversion process, among other factors. Morningstar values it at HK$1500 per square foot.
For the hotel business, Morningstar anticipates that revenue will recover to 2019 fiscal year levels in 2026. Despite the Fed's interest rate cut, the pressure on real estate sales and profits continues, and buyers may wait for mortgage rates to drop to an acceptable range before entering the market. Shk ppt's performance in the 2024 fiscal year fell below expectations, with net profit decreasing by 9% year-on-year to 19 billion Hong Kong dollars, mainly due to a 30.5% year-on-year decrease in real estate sales and fair value losses from property investments. The mid-term dividend is 2.8 Hong Kong dollars, resulting in a total annual dividend of 3.75 Hong Kong dollars, a 24.2% decrease compared to the previous year.
