Zhijing Finance and Economics APP learned that Guosen Securities released a research report stating that it is more reasonable to calculate the size of the medical beauty market based on the high-end consumer population. According to Guosen Securities' calculations, by 2024, the number of high-end population is less than a million, but the contribution to the medical beauty consumption market is close to one hundred billion yuan. The penetration rate of reorganized collagen medical beauty products in the high-end population in 2023 is estimated to be less than 20%, but on the one hand, its differentiated effects such as eye anti-aging and improvement of facial fine lines are expected to capture the budget of competitive products. On the other hand, there is still room for further consumer education, and the future penetration rate is expected to increase to a higher level compared to ordinary hyaluronic acid projects. Bullish on the increase in penetration rate of reorganized collagen medical beauty products, the market size is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan in 2030.

It is more reasonable to calculate the size of the medical beauty market based on the high-end consumer population.

The reorganized collagen medical beauty products are currently in the limelight, with few compliant products on the market. Multiple products under development are expected to be approved and enter the market around 2025, making market space calculations and subsequent changes in the competitive landscape a hot topic in the capital markets. Guosen Securities believes that reorganized collagen belongs to high-end medical beauty products, which is relatively challenging for most ordinary consumers to support a complete course of treatment (requiring a total consumption of tens of thousands of yuan), hence using the method of 'total population penetration rate, per capita consumption' to calculate the market space for reorganized collagen has certain irrationality. In this document, Guosen Securities introduces the "high-end population" with an annual medical beauty consumption of over 0.05 million yuan as a reference. They have stable demand, sufficient budget, and strong consumption resilience, making them more suitable for calculating the market space for high-end medical beauty products. According to Guosen Securities' calculations, by 2024, the number of high-end population is less than a million, but they contribute to nearly one hundred billion yuan in the medical beauty consumption market.

Bullish on the increase in penetration rate of reorganized collagen medical beauty products, the market size is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan in 2030.

In 2023, the penetration rate of reorganized collagen medical beauty products in the high-end population is estimated to be less than 20%, but Guosen Securities believes that on one hand, its differentiated effects such as eye anti-aging and improvement of facial fine lines are expected to capture the budget of competitive products. On the other hand, there is still room for further consumer education, and the future penetration rate is expected to increase to a higher level compared to ordinary hyaluronic acid projects. According to Guosen Securities' calculations, the penetration of 'sufficient dose, sufficient treatment' treatment plans in the high-end population will drive industry growth, and the market size of reorganized collagen medical beauty will reach 5.65 billion yuan (factory price) in 2030 with a CAGR of approximately 33% from 2024 to 2030, enough to accommodate 3-4 blockbuster products with an annual volume of 1-2 billion yuan, the current industry is still in the early stages of development, so there is no need to worry too much about the future market competition worsening due to the approval of new products.

Strengthening support, seeking differentiation, and exploring synergy are all future directions for reorganized collagen.

(1) Strong support: The medical beauty products of animal collagen have gradually developed from the first generation of non-crosslinked and weakly supportive products to the fourth generation of long-term support, while the current reconstituted collagen is still at the first generation level. In order to strengthen support and extend maintenance time, different companies have different technical routes and show their strengths. (2) Differentiation: Common type I and type III recombinant collagens are commonly seen on the market, but natural collagen has 29 types. By developing different types of collagen protein, it is expected to explore different differentiated indications from existing recombinant collagen medical beauty products. (3) Synergy: Synergize with other components such as hyaluronic acid, drugs, microspheres, etc., to provide better and more diversified treatment effects in the form of complex products.

Short-term focus on companies with obvious first-mover advantages and long-term differentiation growth potential

In the short term, the recombinant collagen protein medical beauty market is still a blue ocean. The existing few compliant products not only enjoy the compliance dividend window, but also have a longer brand construction cycle and obvious first-mover advantages. In the long term, as similar products continue to be approved and listed, differentiation strategy will become the key for companies to stand out. This includes achieving product and efficacy differentiation through technological reserves (triple helix, cross-linking, etc.), diverse layouts (different types, indications, etc.), and ingredient synergy (multi-component complex products), as well as consumer mind differentiation brought by brand construction at the consumer end.

Key recommendations: (1) Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited (02367), a collagen skincare industry leader with high growth in cosmetics and medical beauty pipeline landing in sight; (2) Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology (600526.SH) and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited (688363.SH), which are expected to replicate their original business success by expanding into the recombinant collagen medical beauty market.

Beneficiary symbols: JinBo Biologic (832982.BJ, the only compliant recombinant collagen medical beauty product, continuously increasing sales of Weiermei), Jiangsu Wuzhong (600200.SH), Chuangjian Medical (pending listing), etc.

Risk warning: Insufficient end demand, delayed approval of new products, public opinion on medical accidents, substitution of other materials.