Tonight, the non-farm payroll data will be released.

The previous value of this data is 11.4, and the expected value is 16, the difference between the two is quite large, which has aroused the curiosity of many people: Is this data bullish or bearish? Here, we will give you a more detailed explanation. It should be emphasized that this is not an absolute conclusion. Currently, there is some correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market, but not as close as in previous years.

In September, interest rates were cut by 25 basis points, the rate cut expectation was met, which is bearish, resulting in a price decline.

In September, interest rates were cut by 25 basis points, inflation was contained, economic operation was stable, which is bullish, resulting in a price increase.

In September, interest rates were cut by 50 basis points, the economy encountered problems, and the rate cut was to make up for the loss, which is bearish, resulting in a price decline.

In September, interest rates were cut by 50 basis points, which exceeded expectations, which is bullish, resulting in a price increase.

Of course, the above analysis only summarizes the general impact of non-farm payroll data on the cryptocurrency market. In fact, there are many uncertain factors in the market. Therefore, investors need to analyze the market situation more comprehensively and holistically, especially paying attention to technical analysis and changes in market sentiment.

How long will the impact of non-farm payroll data last?

Firstly, this impact will not last for a long time, usually within one or two hours after the data is released, the market will gradually recover.

Secondly, although non-farm data has a significant impact on the forex trend, especially the trend of the US dollar, the causal relationship is not absolute. Traders also need to consider other factors, such as market expectations, when placing trades.

Thirdly, due to the large market volatility before and after the release of non-farm data, the risk is high. For conservative and cautious traders, they can choose to exit and observe when non-farm data is released.

There is an ancient Chinese saying that goes: Buy when there is disagreement, sell when there is consensus.

There is another ancient Chinese saying: If you don't see the rabbit, don't release the eagle.

Therefore, the point expressed above is that in the cryptocurrency circle, BTC and ETH, as stocks in the US technology stock market, lack fundamental factors. Currently, they can only follow the trend and oscillate weakly because the current market environment is very tricky.

The bulls and bears are like two wild dogs fighting endlessly. In my opinion, both dogs are exhausted. If someone gives one of them a boost, the chances of winning will be higher on that side.

The complete version of the sentence is: "Buy when there is disagreement and it turns into consensus, sell when there is consensus and it turns into disagreement." If you can't catch that point, it's also good to catch the range.

Returning to the market: The adjustment of Bitcoin has already entered the middle and later stages, or rather the later stage, and is currently slowly building a bottom. Will it drop below 52,000 in the range of 54,000-64,000? There is a probability, but it is difficult to drop below 50,000.

It is expected that in late September, at the latest in October, the bottom will slowly rise and the main uptrend will begin, catching those who are bearish off guard.

When will BTC break through the high point of March again?

The following is my personal random guess, please take it as a joke.

Let's look at the chart. In December 2017, it reached the highest point of the bull market of that year, and then 4 years later in December 2020, it just surpassed the previous bull market high. In April 2021, it reached the highest point of the bull market of that year, and after a 7-month adjustment, it broke through the high of April again. 3 years later, in March 2024, it broke through the high point of the bull market in 2021 and started a major adjustment. If we want to break through the trapped positions of November 2021 and March 2024 after this adjustment, it may also take about 7 months to adjust, so it is expected to break through the high point of March 2024 around October 13th.

Note: The release of unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data tonight is particularly crucial, as the data will determine how much interest rate cut will be implemented.

Attention, be wary of the possibility of exceeding expectations, and be prepared for BTC to fall to 55,000.

In addition to Bitcoin, DeFi should be the focus of attention.

I have emphasized the relationship between shanghai new world and the old world many times before. The current traditional financial system represents the old world, while blockchain and Web3 represent the new world. Our current task is to build a new world in the new world, rather than overthrowing the old world.

Some projects try to change the old world through blockchain, such as putting traditional assets on the chain (such as RWA) or combining traditional hardware with blockchain through projects like depin. These attempts are mostly futile, because they try to empower or transform the old world. However, the truly meaningful approach is to focus on building our own system in the new world.

As long as we build the new world into an oasis, people from the old world will naturally be attracted. Entities like bitcoin, ethereum, defi, and NFT are all important components of the new world. We need to first address the internal problems of the new world, such as the interoperability of Layer 2, transaction costs and speed issues, and asset security.

Once the new world is perfected, funds and manpower from the old world will naturally flow in. Therefore, our top priority is to focus on defi because defi addresses the pressing need for asset exchange.

Two recent news items worth paying attention to: the token buyback by the 1inch team, which led to a 20% price increase; Uniswap token UNI was also bottomed by a large whale. The team's actions and the confidence of the whales indicate that influential individuals still have confidence in defi.

The defi sector is mainly divided into two sectors: exchanges and lending. Exchanges solve the problem of asset exchange, decentralized exchanges (DEX) like Uniswap make real profits through trading fees. Uniswap's revenue comes not only from tokens but also from trading fees. In addition, a recent community vote also proposed to distribute a portion of the trading fees to UNI token holders, equivalent to stock dividends.

1inch, as an aggregator, provides the best trading prices and paths, while DYDX focuses on derivatives and leverage trading. These platforms have made substantial profits because they address the actual needs in the new world.

Although Defi projects have growth potential and cash flow, they also face risks. The first is the valuation issue - is the current price below its intrinsic value? If the price has not reached below value, investors may still be trapped.

Next is the issue of product moats. Unlike NFTs, DeFi projects face fierce competition, as the code is open source and competitors can easily fork the project. The free spot trading model of centralized exchanges (CEX) also poses a threat to DEX.

Overall, projects with certain product barriers, moats, and cash flow are worth paying attention to. They address real needs in the Web3 new world and provide valuable services. As long as the price is lower than the value, it is worth considering buying in at a low price.

Finally,

This round of Bitcoin halving can be said to have disappointed the entire market! In history, every round of Bitcoin halving has been followed by a wave of major market trends within 3-4 months. However, this time, after 4 months, the market has actually declined compared to the price of 63,800 at the time of the halving. Is it a failure of historical trends or is there something exciting ahead?

No one can guarantee this. After every Bitcoin halving, the market supply of Bitcoin decreases, causing a situation where supply is less than demand and prices rise. The market's psychological expectation also tends to be an increase after the halving, so everyone will accumulate some chips during this period.

Therefore, almost every Bitcoin halving has resulted in a market uptrend. However, this time, the historical pattern deviated. Let's recall that after the Bitcoin halving, with the introduction of ETFs, institutions such as BlackRock entered the market and aggressively bought in. At least until now, there are no signs of them selling off.

If they also have a bearish outlook on future market trends, then what they should do now is slowly sell off like Grayscale. But not only have they not sold off, they are slowly increasing their holdings. However, from this point, we really don't need to worry about the future market trend. The future is still very promising!