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Jiajiayue Group Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603708) On An Uptrend But Financial Prospects Look Pretty Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 7, 2024 07:24

Jiajiayue Group's (SHSE:603708) stock is up by a considerable 8.5% over the past week. However, we decided to pay close attention to its weak financials as we are doubtful that the current momentum will keep up, given the scenario. Specifically, we decided to study Jiajiayue Group's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Jiajiayue Group is:

5.0% = CN¥126m ÷ CN¥2.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CN¥1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made CN¥0.05 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Jiajiayue Group's Earnings Growth And 5.0% ROE

When you first look at it, Jiajiayue Group's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 6.6% either. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 39% seen by Jiajiayue Group over the last five years is not surprising. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

So, as a next step, we compared Jiajiayue Group's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 5.1% over the last few years.

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SHSE:603708 Past Earnings Growth September 6th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Jiajiayue Group is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Jiajiayue Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Jiajiayue Group has a high three-year median payout ratio of 86% (that is, it is retaining 14% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely.

Moreover, Jiajiayue Group has been paying dividends for seven years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer consistent dividends even though earnings have been shrinking.

Summary

In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Jiajiayue Group. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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