By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. Just take a look at Anhui Xinhua Media Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601801), which is up 39%, over three years, soundly beating the market decline of 36% (not including dividends).
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, Anhui Xinhua Media achieved compound earnings per share growth of 3.9% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 12% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. That's not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240907/0-5d700ddabf93cbba9de1b347bd70797d-0-0c65c500b6ae6dbfe044a059ae3ff503.png/big)
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Anhui Xinhua Media's TSR for the last 3 years was 53%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Although it hurts that Anhui Xinhua Media returned a loss of 1.2% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 17%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. Before forming an opinion on Anhui Xinhua Media you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.
But note: Anhui Xinhua Media may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.