Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (HKG:16) missed earnings with its latest yearly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Sun Hung Kai Properties missed earnings this time around, with HK$72b revenue coming in 5.9% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of HK$6.57 also fell short of expectations by 17%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Sun Hung Kai Properties from 14 analysts is for revenues of HK$77.0b in 2025. If met, it would imply a credible 7.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 20% to HK$8.35. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of HK$83.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$8.60 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$88.87, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Sun Hung Kai Properties' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Sun Hung Kai Properties analyst has a price target of HK$115 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$70.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Sun Hung Kai Properties' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 7.7% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 5.4% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.7% annually. So it looks like Sun Hung Kai Properties is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Sun Hung Kai Properties' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$88.87, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Sun Hung Kai Properties going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Sun Hung Kai Properties .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.