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国信证券:看好猪禽景气上行 重视养殖低位布局

Guosen Securities: Bullish on the upward trend of the pig and poultry industry, pay attention to low-cost breeding layout.

Zhitong Finance ·  Sep 8 07:21

The short-term supply and demand pattern for white chicken improved marginally, and I am optimistic that the pig and chicken boom will resonate in the medium term.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities published a research report saying that it is optimistic that the pig and chicken economy will resonate in the medium term. Commercial pig prices rose month-on-month this week. The performance was strong. I am optimistic that the sector will improve in the second half of the year. Yellow chicken production capacity declined in the early stages, and the future is expected to resonate simultaneously with the reversal in pig prices. The short-term supply and demand pattern for white chicken has improved marginally. In the medium term, supply is sufficient, and it is expected that a boom will begin as pig prices reverse. In terms of animal insurance, the team recommended focusing on the progress of research and development of new products such as non-plague vaccines and pet vaccines; in terms of meat products, pig prices are in the early stages of the upward cycle this year, and Shuanghui Development (000895.SZ) is expected to achieve rising performance and high dividends.

Weekly agricultural product price tracking: optimistic about the rise in pig prices in the second half of the year.

Pigs: Commercial pig prices rose month-on-month this week. On September 6, the price of pigs was 19.82 yuan/kg, up 2.01% from the previous month; the price of 7kg piglets was 455 yuan/head, down 4.93% from the previous month; the elimination of sows was 13.87 yuan/kg, up 0.07% from the previous month.

White Chicken: The short-term supply and demand pattern has improved marginally, and I am optimistic that the pig and chicken economy will resonate in the medium term. On September 6, the price of chicken seedlings was 3.41 yuan/feather, up 4.28% from the previous month; the price of chicken was 7.39 yuan/kg, up 0.14% from the previous month. Yellow Chicken: Supply remains at a bottom, and demand is gradually improving. The price of blue-footed chicken was 5.23 yuan/kg on September 6, the same as the previous month, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.96%.

Eggs: Short-term or seasonal rebound, supply pressure remains strong in the medium term. On September 6, the price in the main egg-producing regions was 5.06 yuan/kg, up 4.12% month-on-month and 19.91% year-on-year.

Soybeans and soybean meal: Relaxed supply gradually became a trend, and the medium-term market fluctuated downward. On September 6, the spot price of soybeans was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous month; the spot price of soybean meal was 3,150 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous month. Corn: The weather in the production area is disturbed, and the bottom support is strong. On September 6, the spot price of domestic corn was 2,333 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the same period last week and 20.57% lower than the same period last year.

Sugar: Facing pressure to arrive in Hong Kong in the short term, pay attention to the weather in production areas in the medium term. On September 6, the domestic spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,180 yuan/ton, down 1.44% from last week.

Rubber: Short-term demand weakens, and the bottom of the price is not pessimistic. On September 6, the spot price of No. 20 standard rubber in Shanghai was 12,945 yuan/ton, down 0.61% month on month and 22.41% year on year.

Core view: Optimistic about farming layout, focus on seed transgenesis and catalysis. 1) Pig breeding: Pig prices are showing strong performance, and I am optimistic that the sector will rise in the second half of the year. 2) Yellow chicken: The decline in production capacity in the early stages is expected to resonate simultaneously with the reversal of pig prices in the future. 3) White chicken: There is sufficient supply in the medium term, and it is expected to start a boom as pig prices reverse. 4) Animal insurance: Pay attention to the progress of research and development of new products such as non-plague vaccines and pet vaccines. 5) Meat products: Pig prices are in the early stages of the upward cycle this year. We are optimistic about Shuanghui's upward development performance and high dividends. 6) Feed and pets: Feed will be concentrated in technical service companies, and the core is optimistic about Haida Group, etc. The pet sector's export performance was good, or ushered in better opportunities. 7) Planting chain: Commercialization of genetically-modified products, optimistic that leading technology-leading seed companies will usher in a golden period of growth. Rubber bottoms are not pessimistic; they are optimistic about mid-term fundamentals.

Investment advice: Recommended breeding 1) Pig recommendations: Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ), Huatong (002840.SZ), Wen's Co., Ltd. (300498.SZ), Shennong Group (605296.SH), Xinwufeng (600975.SH), Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (603477.SH), Tang Renshen (002567.SZ), Tiankang Biology (002100.SZ), etc.;

2) Poultry recommendations: Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ), Yisheng Co., Ltd. (002458.SZ), Shengnong Development (002299.SZ), etc.;

3) Planting recommendations: Hainan Rubber (601118.SH), Fengle Seed Industry (000713.SZ), Longping Hi-Tech (000998.SZ), Dabeinong (002385.SZ), Denghai Seed Industry (002041.SZ), etc.;

4) Animal insurance recommendations: pre-science biology (688526.SH), Huisheng biology (300871.SZ), etc.;

5) Feed recommendations: Haida Group (002311.SZ), etc.;

6) Meat product recommendations: Shuanghui Development (000895.SZ), etc.

Risk warning: Uncertain risks due to bad weather; potential risks caused by uncontrolled animal outbreaks.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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