By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (NYSE:DD), which is up 12%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 9.8% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 7.0% in the last year, including dividends.
While the stock has fallen 6.1% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the three years of share price growth, DuPont de Nemours actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 27% per year.
The strong decline in earnings per share suggests the market isn't using EPS to judge the company. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
Languishing at just 1.9%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. You can only imagine how long term shareholders feel about the declining revenue trend (slipping at 3.3% per year). The only thing that's clear is there is low correlation between DuPont de Nemours' share price and its historic fundamental data. Further research may be required!
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240908/0-70a9dfeb11a756392bb4679f79536c0b-0-7a889c0909dd80c36191a80acdca56f2.png/big)
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on DuPont de Nemours
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, DuPont de Nemours' TSR for the last 3 years was 19%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
DuPont de Nemours shareholders are up 7.0% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 3% over half a decade It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand DuPont de Nemours better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - DuPont de Nemours has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.