guosen securities released a research report stating that it maintains a "outperform" rating on china resources gas (01193) and expects the company to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.64/6.13/6.63 billion Hong Kong dollars in 2024-2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%/9%/8%. The company achieved a gas sales volume of 20.90 billion cubic meters in the first half of the year (+5.3%), with a gas sales margin of 0.54 yuan per cubic meter (+0.04 yuan per cubic meter). In addition, the company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.25 Hong Kong dollars per share, a year-on-year increase of 66.7%, with a dividend payout ratio of 16.74%.

国信証券の主な観点は以下のようになります:

The growth in gas sales volume and the improvement in gas sales margin have driven stable growth in performance.

In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 52.076 billion Hong Kong dollars (+7.7%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.457 billion Hong Kong dollars (-2.5%). If the one-time gain of 694 million Hong Kong dollars generated by the consolidation of chongqing gas in the same period of 2023 is excluded, the year-on-year growth rate will be 21.2%. The company's gas sales volume reached 20.90 billion cubic meters (+5.3%), with a gas sales margin of 0.54 yuan per cubic meter (+0.04 yuan per cubic meter), and a gas sales surplus of 4.75 billion Hong Kong dollars (+31.3%).

The rapid growth of civil and commercial gas has driven an increase in gas volume through internal growth.

In the first half of 2024, out of the 20.90 billion cubic meters of gas sold by the company, 5.76 billion cubic meters were residential gas, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, accounting for 27.6%; 9.66 billion cubic meters were industrial gas, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, accounting for 46.2%; 5.01 billion cubic meters were commercial gas, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, accounting for 24.0%; and 0.47 billion cubic meters were vehicle gas, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, accounting for a further decrease to 2.2%. In the first half of the year, the company signed 2 new projects at the member company level, and registered 3 projects. The contribution of incremental gas volume growth was small, mainly driven by the internal growth of existing projects.

The gas sales price and cost have decreased, and the repair of the gas sales margin has been promoted by the price increase of residential gas.

In the first half of 2024, the average sales price of gas for the company was 3.48 yuan per cubic meter (-0.10 yuan per cubic meter), of which the sales price of residential gas was 2.67 yuan per cubic meter (+0.08 yuan per cubic meter); the sales price of industrial and commercial gas was 3.81 yuan per cubic meter (-0.18 yuan per cubic meter); and the sales price of vehicle gas was 3.87 yuan per cubic meter (-0.17 yuan per cubic meter). The average cost of gas sales for the company was 2.94 yuan per cubic meter (-0.14 yuan per cubic meter), with a gross margin of 0.54 yuan per cubic meter (+0.04 yuan per cubic meter).

接続ビジネスの規模が縮小し、"二次総合"ビジネスが急速に成長しています。

2024年上半期、会社の接続ビジネス収入は301.6億香港ドルで、前年同期比で29.1%減少し、総売上高の比率は5.8%で、前年同期比で3.0ポイント減少しました。カテゴリ別の業績は112.4億香港ドルに達し、前年同期比で29.4%減少し、税引前利益全体の19.7%を占め、前年同期比で8.8ポイント減少しました。総合サービス収入は177億香港ドルで、前年同期比で20.0%の増加となり、76億香港ドルの利益を上げ、前年同期比で22.1%増加しました。総合エネルギー収入は83億香港ドルで、前年同期比で38.0%増加しました。"二次総合"ビジネスの急速な発展は、接続ビジネスの縮小が会社全体の業績に与える影響をある程度補っています。

中間配当が大幅に増加しました。

会社は中間株式配当を0.25香港ドル/株で支払う予定で、前年同期比で66.7%増加し、配当支払率は16.74%です。会社の配当は主に年次配当に重点を置いており、2023年の年次配当は1.16香港セント/株で、配当支払率は51.25%で、これに対応する配当利回りは4.5%です。

リスクの警告：ガス価格の波動、下流需要の低迷、政策の予測外、プロジェクトの進捗の予測外。