The non-farm data released by the United States last week performed poorly, causing investors to have increasing concerns about the recession of the U.S. economy. Bitcoin also fell to $0.053 million at one point during the week. Over the weekend, the trading volume of Bitcoin indicated a bearish trend with a significant decrease in volume. However, today Bitcoin started to oscillate and rise from $54,400, and currently the price has rebounded to $55,355, a 1.37% increase in the past 24 hours.

This week is a crucial week. The weekly closing of last week was not pretty, but not bad either, remaining stable above the key support level of 54,000. This indicates that the bull market still has strong support. Mid-September is worth looking forward to.

From the current market trend, the overall trend of the large cap is slightly stronger, but the upward movement is limited. In the short term, the large cap will range between 53,000 and 56,000, while ethereum will range between 2,200 and 2,400, and sol will range between 125 and 135.

From a technical perspective, the current trend of the large cap is still weak. This week, the focus will be on the release of CPI data and the presidential candidate debate. These two events will have an impact on the market trend, and we can only observe whether it will be bullish or bearish as we go along.

CPI release is imminent, and bitcoin is rebounding.

The U.S. CPI report scheduled to be released on September 12th will be more important than ever. The market currently expects a significant decrease in the CPI from 2.9% to 2.6%, which may provide sufficient reason for a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate is 5.25% to 5.50%, and a monetary policy with an interest rate above 3.0% is usually considered tight. Therefore, the range of interest rate adjustments may be around 200 basis points. This view is somewhat confirmed by the 2-year Treasury yield, which expects a 160 basis point interest rate cut. Unless the CPI data remains at 2.9% or higher, we expect a 50 basis point interest rate cut.

Bitcoin reached its high price in March when the CPI data exceeded expectations, but it fell sharply after the March FOMC meeting, highlighting the importance of the next ten days.

After the March FOMC meeting, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETF lost momentum. Although there was a partial recovery in May and July, the average ETF entry price is still close to $60,000. The current inflow of $17 billion faces a loss of $2 billion (currently the BTC price is around $55,000). This week, the presidential debate may help alleviate some of the election-related uncertainties, but on the other hand, the FOMC meeting may increase uncertainty - because after the recent downward revision of labor market data, the Federal Reserve may emphasize concerns about downside economic risks.

After experiencing a sharp decline last week, Bitcoin is attempting to achieve a price rebound. Two of the three reversal indicators have recovered from deep oversold levels, further indicating the potential for a short-term bounce and counter-trend rally. In the past, when the stochastic indicator reached similar levels, Bitcoin reached relative lows.

Key events this week:

On Tuesday, September 10th, Apple will hold a product launch event, which may bring volatility to the US stock market.

On Wednesday, September 11th, Harris and Trump will debate on ABC News. The latest Consumer Price Index report will be released, and the market currently estimates that the CPI year-on-year growth rate will slightly decrease to 2.6%, while the core CPI year-on-year growth rate will remain unchanged at 3.2% in July.

On Thursday, September 12th, the US initial jobless claims and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced.

On Friday, September 13th, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for September will be released.

What will happen next in the market?

It is expected that there will be an interest rate cut on the 19th, which is still 10 days away. Many people have already run out of funds, so I suggest those with limited funds to stop speculating, especially those without a source of funds. Do not borrow money, as it is a bottomless pit.

The trend this year is basically a copy of last year, both peaking in March and then continuously declining without taking a breather. It drops for four days a week and every day it opens with a few points of decline, falling for several months. Last year, it took six months for a rebound to occur, and this year has also seen a six-month decline. The interest rate cut in September is considered bullish in name, but capital markets usually respond to good news with caution. Currently, the US stock market is actually reflecting the interest rate cut in advance, leading to a declining retracement.

Referring to the time period of adjustments around the first interest rate cut during the weak landing periods of 2019 and 1995, the current correction period for the US stock market from the high point in mid-July until now is only about one and a half months.

It is expected that there will be further fluctuations before the final adjustment. After all, the market is anticipating a recession but it cannot be confirmed at the moment. It would be normal to have subsequent doubts dispelled. Currently, it is advisable to pay close attention to the CPI data to be released after September 11, which will be the last crucial data before the Fed's September interest rate meeting.

Significant funds will definitely not act rashly before the release of CPI data. If the CPI data is in line with expectations or stronger, the cryptocurrency market may experience another decline, otherwise, there may be a rallying call for the market. Undeniably, this period is a good opportunity for phased bottom fishing, despite some bumps in the road, caution should be taken against prematurely selling at the bottom.

In summary

The current market, whether it is bitcoin or ethereum, is at a critical juncture. With market sentiment low and investors cautious, the uncertainty of the Fed's policy has added to the complexity of future trends. However, it is often during such turmoil that long-term investors can seize opportunities. As October approaches, the market may regain vitality, and the halving of bitcoin along with global macro liquidity could be key drivers of the future bull market.