On September 9, the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily reported (Reporter Yu Jiaxin) that the 2024 Science and Technology Innovation Board semi-annual collective performance briefing and the New Energy special collective performance briefing were attended by a total of 20 new energy industry chain companies, including JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, ATS, Daquan Energy and other leading photovoltaic companies, as well as Zhuhai Guanyu, Shenzhen United Winners Laser, Li Yuanheng, and Yihua Tong in the battery field.

▍Photovoltaic industry: The bottom has been reached, and the benefits of the US factory incentives will be realized.

Chairman of JinkoSolar, Li Xiande, stated that the current photovoltaic industry has reached its low point in the cycle, and the industry has already curbed the disorderly expansion of production capacity from the source. In the future, the industry will gradually recover. During the industry consolidation process, companies without technological advantages, market capabilities, and resource platforms, as well as uncompetitive production capacity, will be eliminated.

Gao Jifan, Chairman and General Manager of Trina Solar, also mentioned that the prices of the photovoltaic industry chain are currently at the bottom range, and in the future, with the gradual optimization of the market supply and demand pattern, it is expected that the industry chain prices will experience a positive rebound.

"Looking at the industry at the current point in time, the future value focus of the photovoltaic industry will shift from upstream production and manufacturing to downstream brand channels. At that time, the most important competitive factor in the industry will no longer be production capacity allocation, but the ability to provide solutions to customers. This requires photovoltaic companies to have at least 'multi-product supply capability + full-lifecycle service capability.'" Gao Jifan said.

In terms of technology routes, both companies believe that N-type TOPCon will be the main technology route in the future. Among them, JinkoSolar has the possibility of achieving 28% mass production conversion efficiency with N-type TOPCon batteries in the future, with a chance to increase efficiency by 0.5 percentage points per year over the following three years; Trina Solar mentioned that in the long term, the best form is the silicon and perovskite tandem cell, and TOPCon is more suitable as the bottom cell of the tandem cell. The TOPCon + perovskite tandem cell technology will continue to have strong vitality.

However, in terms of the specific turning point period, Wang Xiyu, the director and general manager of Daquan Energy, believes that for the second half of 2024, the market conditions in the silicon material industry may continue to maintain the current situation.

From the perspective of supply and demand, on the demand side, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that the global new installed capacity in 2024 will be 390-430GW, and the domestic new installed capacity will be 190-220GW. Compared with the slower growth rate of installed capacity in 2023, the demand for silicon materials is also expected to slow down. On the supply side, based on the inventory of sufficient silicon materials, monthly production increase, and downstream production of silicon wafers, it can be seen that the supply and demand for silicon materials and silicon wafers have not achieved a tight balance, and the supply and demand relationship has not been fundamentally improved. Therefore, the upward space for silicon material prices will still be limited in the future.

Ge Zhi, Chairman and General Manager of Wuxi Autowell Technology Co., Ltd., mentioned that the photovoltaic industry is currently facing the severe challenge of temporary overcapacity, and this round of industry adjustment will continue for some time. We currently cannot determine the specific timing.

Recently, JinkoSolar mentioned in their earnings conference that their factory in Florida has obtained tax exemptions under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States. This development indicates that Chinese companies are making progress in building photovoltaic production facilities in the United States.

During the earnings conference, Cao Haiyun, the financial director and deputy general manager of JinkoSolar, stated that the company will enjoy the tax benefits generated based on the US IRA Act for the actual production in 2023, and will also actively strive for the tax benefits generated by the new 2GW production capacity in the United States.

Qu Xiaohua, Chairman and actual controller of ATS, stated that the ATS 5GW component factory in the United States will be put into production at the end of 2023 and will be eligible for IRA subsidies according to relevant policies.

Gao Jifan, Chairman and General Manager of Trina Solar Co., Ltd., stated that the company has planned for a 5GW component capacity in the United States, and is expected to start production in the second half of 2024.

In the lithium-ion battery industry, solid-state batteries, 3C batteries, and overseas markets have become breakthrough points.

For the current overall pressure on the performance of the lithium-ion battery industry, investors are focusing on new growth areas for companies. Among them, solid-state batteries, consumer batteries, and overseas markets are becoming new growth points.

In August this year, Hymson Laser Technology Group officially signed a mass production order for 2GWh of quasi-solid state battery equipment with Xinjien Energy, with an order amount of approximately 0.4 billion yuan. Zhao Shengyu, the chairman and general manager of the company, stated that the company's quasi-solid state battery technology route uses oxide solid state electrolyte and lithium metal as the negative electrode, with an electrolyte content of less than 5%, and an energy density exceeding 450Wh/kg. The current customer feedback and order expectations are good.

Chen Zhenrong, the board secretary of Qingdao Gaoce Technology, stated that the R&D and production of all-solid-state batteries are a key focus of our strategic layout. Qingdao Gaoce has conducted in-depth coordination with several industry-leading companies on the solid-state battery solutions and provided relevant equipment support. Prototypes of key equipment such as dry electrode, solid-state electrolyte compression transfer, and lithium-copper composite equipment have been successfully developed, and milestone achievements have been made in areas such as polarizer insulation frame forming equipment and high-pressure composition device.

Hu Liuquan, the chairman of New Energy Fund, mentioned that the company currently has close technical cooperation with mainstream battery companies in the industry on solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries, and the product performance is excellent.

Niu Zengqiang, the deputy director of Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co., Ltd, stated that as of the end of June this year, the accumulated orders for small steel shell batteries amount to approximately 0.5 billion yuan (inclusive of tax). The project is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to confirm revenue in the second half of this year. The main project partners are domestic consumer battery manufacturers.

Luo Xiaoxi, a director, deputy general manager, and board secretary of Hymson Laser Technology Group, mentioned that in the 3C field, the company has developed a fully automatic assembly line for steel shell batteries, with an overall efficiency of 15PPM. This not only saves manpower, but also has received positive feedback from the first batch of customers in terms of yield, stability, etc. In the field of vehicle-mounted cameras related to autonomous driving, it has successfully developed aluminum shell camera welding technology and equipment, and has established cooperation with multiple customers.

Regarding overseas markets, Han Jinlong, the chairman of Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co., Ltd, mentioned that in the first half of 2024, the company will increase its efforts to expand the overseas market, gradually improve the layout of overseas companies, and expects a significant increase in new overseas orders compared to the same period last year, with an estimated large increase for the full year. Overseas cooperative partners include car manufacturers and battery factories in North America, Europe, East Asia, India, and other regions.

Tang Xiulei, the board secretary of Autowell Technologies Co., Ltd, stated that in November 2023, the company entered the supply chain of a large lithium battery group in South Korea through Beterui. The company will continue to develop customers at home and abroad, achieving multi-channel breakthroughs in sales.

Cycle adjustment: The focus is on production capacity and capacity utilization.

Excess production capacity in the new energy industry has become a consensus. At the earnings conference, many investors are concerned about the company's production capacity and utilization rate, and there is a significant adjustment in the layout of company's production lines.

Tang Xiulei, the secretary of the board of directors of Fanyuan Co., Ltd., stated that due to the current less-than-expected demand in the overseas market and the impact of geopolitical and trade protection factors, the company has been gradually transforming some production lines into intermediate products such as nickel cobalt salts and lithium carbonate. The production is in a ramp-up state, resulting in a relatively low utilization rate of production capacity.

Zhang Xu, the chairman of Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co., Ltd., stated that the "Yibin (Phase I) 25GW PV Silicon Wafer Project" of the company started production and reached full production conditions in the first half of this year. Due to the fluctuation of the overall PV industry's operating rate, the Yibin base is currently not operating at full capacity, but the operating rate is increasing. "Currently, the company's production and operation are normal. In August, the silicon wafer slicing and processing service business and diamond wire shipments have increased. The new orders for equipment business have relatively decreased, but the market share still remains the first."

Gao Jifan, chairman and general manager of Trina Solar Co., Ltd., stated that overseas, the company has accurately positioned the 1GW battery and module project in Indonesia and the 5GW module project in the United States, which are expected to start production in the second half of 2024. "Currently, the company does not have any other confirmed new investment projects, and in the future, the main focus will be on accurate and scattered capacity deployment. Similar to the capacity in Indonesia, it is not large in scale, but it can effectively radiate regional markets and withstand international trade risks."

Li Xiande, chairman of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., stated that the overall module production in the third quarter is expected to maintain a leading position in the industry. The overall inventory of the company is maintained at a controllable level, and inventory turnover efficiency will continue to be improved in the second half of the year.

At the same time, Jiang Rui, the secretary of the board of directors of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., stated that the company has more than 10 global production bases in China, the United States, and Southeast Asia. Recently, the company has signed shareholder agreements with PIF and VI, and plans to jointly invest in the construction of a 10GW high-efficiency battery and module project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to start production in early 2026. It can effectively radiate Central Asia, Africa, and other regions, as well as high-priced markets in Europe and the United States, further enhancing the company's globalization advantage. At the same time, the construction of the project at the Shanxi base of the company is progressing continuously, with the first phase of crystal pulling and module workshops already in operation, and the second phase is in the project construction stage.

As the performance of the energy storage business grows, ATES has raised its shipment guidance for large-scale energy storage systems this year. Qu Xiaohua, the chairman and actual controller of the company, stated that "the sales of large-scale energy storage systems are currently mainly focused on overseas markets such as North America, Europe, and Australia. These markets are the most important large-scale energy storage markets worldwide, with predictable market size and more healthy and stable profitability. The company is also actively expanding other international markets."

Tan Wen, a director and president of Pylon Technologies, stated that currently, except for a few countries, the European market has basically returned to a relatively reasonable inventory level. It is expected that the overseas market shipments in the third and fourth quarters will gradually recover to normal speed, and the utilization rate of production capacity will gradually increase. It is expected that the shipment situation of the company's energy storage products will further improve in the second half of the year.