Fox Sees Political Ad Surge, But Growth Concerns Prompt Analyst Downgrade
Fox Sees Political Ad Surge, But Growth Concerns Prompt Analyst Downgrade
While that sets up a healthy cyclical cash flow backdrop, the analyst acknowledged that Fox Corp shares have now exceeded his prior price target of $40 for roughly a week, which might already be reflecting the political ad spend enthusiasm. As such, he moved his recommendation to the sidelines, downgrading his rating.Seaport Research analyst David Joyce downgraded the rating on Fox Corp (NASDAQ:FOX) (NASDAQ:FOXA) to Neutral from Buy. The typical September seasonality in the market led to the downgrade.
海港研究分析师戴维·乔伊斯将福克斯公司（纳斯达克股票代码：FOX）（纳斯达克股票代码：FOXA）的评级从买入下调至中性。9月份市场典型的季节性因素导致了降级。
The analyst observed the political and TV station landscape to derive where the most significant amount of political ad spending may take place, driven by races likely to be competitive, from Presidential swing states to Senate, House, and Gubernatorial races.
这位分析师观察了政治和电视台格局，得出政治广告支出可能发生在哪里，这些竞选可能具有竞争力的竞选，从总统摇摆州到参议院、众议院和州长竞选。
With Fox Corp's business model focused on the U.S. and with a primarily traditional media footprint that is most impacted by political ad spending, from its Fox News Channel to its local TV stations that cover 39% of the country, Joyce stacked up Fox's exposure to that of other public and private key TV station owners.
由于福克斯公司的商业模式侧重于美国，而且其主要的传统媒体足迹受政治广告支出的影响最大，从福克斯新闻频道到覆盖全国39％的当地电视台，乔伊斯增加了福克斯与其他公共和私钥电视台所有者的曝光率。
While that sets up a healthy cyclical cash flow backdrop, the analyst acknowledged that Fox Corp shares have now exceeded his prior price target of $40 for roughly a week, which might already be reflecting the political ad spend enthusiasm. As such, he moved his recommendation to the sidelines, downgrading his rating.
尽管这构成了健康的周期性现金流背景，但这位分析师承认，福克斯公司的股票现在已经超过了他先前设定的40美元的目标股价，持续了大约一周，这可能已经反映了政治广告支出热情。因此，他将建议移至场边，下调了评级。
The stock currently reflects a fiscal 2025 levered free cash flow yield of 10.0% or 11.8% unlevered, which is relatively attractive but a 7.0x EV/EBITDA multiple for a company with ~1% net growth on a compound basis through 2027 due to the cyclical nature of political and SuperBowl advertising in their respective years facing the subsequent year's growth challenges, Joyce noted.
乔伊斯指出，该股目前反映了2025财年的杠杆自由现金流收益率为10.0％，未释放的11.8％，这相对具有吸引力，但由于政治和超级碗广告在各自年份面临次年增长挑战的周期性质，到2027年复合净增长约为1％的公司而言，该股的EV/EBITDA倍数为7.0倍。
The analyst continues to like the consistent capital returns through stock buybacks and dividends but remains skeptical over the type of tuck-in or complementary acquisition activity on the horizon, given Fox has the industry's strongest balance sheet at ~0.8x net leverage.
这位分析师仍然喜欢通过股票回购和分红获得稳定的资本回报，但鉴于福克斯的资产负债表是业内最强劲的，净杠杆率约为0.8倍，因此对即将到来的收购或补充收购活动类型仍持怀疑态度。
Price Action: FOX stock is up 0.11% at $37.40 at the last check on Monday.
价格走势：在周一的最后一次支票中，福克斯股价上涨0.11％，至37.40美元。
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照片由 rafapress 在 Shutterstock 上拍摄
