According to the latest research from private Swiss bank J. Safra Sarasin, as the Swiss franc outperforms other regions of the world and investors seek safe-haven assets, it is expected that the Swiss franc will appreciate against the British pound, euro, and US dollar by the end of the year and continue to do so until 2025.
Dr. Karsten Junius, Chief Economist at J. Safra Sarasin, said, "The Swiss National Bank may loosen its policy faster than previously expected. We expect rate cuts in September, December, and March as inflation is clearly declining."
However, as other central banks lower interest rates, the Swiss National Bank is also expected to further cut rates, and the uncertain sentiment is likely to support the demand for safe-haven currencies.
The bank's forex strategist, Claudio Wewel, said, "Although the Swiss franc may experience a short-term decline, we expect that the highly uncertain global macro outlook will support the Swiss franc. The pullback in global bond yields should also benefit the currency, while hedging geopolitical uncertainties."
He added, "The Swiss franc is expected to continue to perform well."
Dr. Karsten Junius, Chief Economist at J. Safra Sarasin, said, "The Swiss National Bank is quite satisfied with the current valuation of its currency. Without intervention from the Swiss National Bank, we believe there is further room for the Swiss franc to rise in the next year."
However, he acknowledges that once the Swiss National Bank approaches the lower bound of interest rates, intervention issues may arise next year.
J. Safra Sarasin predicts that by the end of 2024, the british pound will be at 1.13 against the swiss franc, at 1.11 by the end of the first quarter of 2025, at 1.09 by the end of the second quarter of 2025, and at 1.06 by the end of 2025; the euro against the swiss franc will be at 0.94, 0.94, 0.93, and 0.92 respectively; the us dollar against the swiss franc will be at 0.87, 0.86, 0.85, and 0.82 respectively.
USD/CHF daily chart
At 9:20 on September 10, Beijing time, the us dollar against the swiss franc is reported at 0.8494/96
