商业化变现方面，宏观维度看，供给过剩商户竞争加剧逐渐接受更低ROI，平台方货币化率提升空间广，公司维度看，阿里推出全站推广告新工具有望提升货币化率，以及淘天增收0.6%软件服务费，新增广告佣金收入将一定程度抵销平台用户投入的增长，有望带动明后年淘天集团利润改善。从股东回报来看，公司持续加大回购分红力度，经测算2025财年股东回报率有望达7%或更高。Alibaba continues to increase repurchase dividends, and it is estimated that the return on shareholders for the 2025 fiscal year is expected to reach 7% or higher.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that it is expected that Alibaba-W (09988) is expected to benefit from the addition of rapid inclusion rules to the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index mechanism, and that inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect index mechanism on September 10 is expected to bring improvements in liquidity. The company's main e-commerce business is mainly aimed at stabilizing its share, and its non-e-commerce business performance is expected to continue to improve. Coupled with high shareholder returns, the low valuation reaffirms Alibaba's “Highly Recommended” rating and target valuation of HK$106.
According to the report, adding rules for rapid inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect Index is expected to bring about improved liquidity. It is expected that passive capital on related topics after Alibaba's entry into the Stock Exchange will form purchases due to component stock adjustments, and at the same time, southbound capital may be actively allocated, which is expected to lead to improved liquidity. According to China Merchants Securities, Alibaba's fundamentals improve share stabilization and high shareholder returns. From a fundamental perspective, Alibaba's organizational optimization and user-first strategic adjustments fundamentally drive the recovery of the main e-commerce industry. GMV's year-on-year growth rate recovered to close to physical online retail sales in the first half of 2024, and the market share stabilized; looking ahead to the future growth of Taobao and Tmall, watching the slow growth rate of live e-commerce traffic and slow competition at low prices will continue to improve the pattern. Steady growth. Ali is expected to increase by 2026 The speed will gradually level with the e-commerce industry, and the market share will gradually stabilize.
In terms of commercial monetization, from a macro perspective, competition among oversupply merchants is gradually accepting lower ROI, and there is plenty of room for the platform to increase monetization rates. From a company perspective, Ali's launch of a new sitewide advertising tool is expected to increase the monetization rate, as well as an increase in software service fees by 0.6%. The additional advertising commission revenue will offset the increase in platform user investment to a certain extent, which is expected to drive Taotian Group's profit improvement in the next year. Judging from shareholder returns, the company continues to increase repurchase dividends, and it is estimated that the return on shareholders for the 2025 fiscal year is expected to reach 7% or higher.