The first AI iPhone in history has made a heavy debut, and Wall Street still has different views on whether it can trigger a "replacement wave".

On Monday local time, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The new iPhone 16 series supporting AI features was launched at the autumn product launch event. This series of models supports smoother photo editing functions, AI-generated emojis, portable email tools, and more personalized Siri voice assistants.

As the first generation AI iPhone, both Apple and the market have high hopes for it. However, considering iPhone sales have been declining continuously over the past four quarters, whether the iPhone 16 can open a "super cycle" for Apple is still an unknown.

After the start of the conference, Apple's stock price continued to fluctuate, once hitting an intra-day low, then gradually recovered, closing up 0.04%.

Bullish view: Strong demand for upgrades, with AI capabilities being the biggest selling point.

Some on Wall Street believe that the all-new iPhone 16 with AI capabilities is likely to spark a "replacement wave" and drive a surge in iPhone sales.

Morgan Stanley analyst said he sees the potential for Apple to achieve better than historical seasonal levels:

Apple Intelligence will help unleash pent-up demand and accelerate the iPhone replacement cycle.

Considering the historically high 4.8-year replacement cycle, there may be additional iPhone production orders in the next 3 to 12 months to support Apple.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, known for being bullish on Apple, said that preliminary supply chain checks for the iPhone 16 indicate much stronger sales than last year's model, expecting this year to be the "strongest year ever for iPhone sales".

Ives expects the initial shipments of the iPhone 16 to exceed 90 million units, higher than Wall Street's expectation of 80-84 million units.

Ben Bajarin, CEO and chief analyst of Creative Strategies, said that the AI features of the iPhone 16 will be a major selling point:

"AI features will help generate more interest in the new product line, but the delay of certain features may mean more people have to wait to see these features."

I have every reason to believe that with an aging user base and very active operation promotion activities, a large portion of the user base should be in need of upgrades, as a significant portion of the user base is using old phones that are over 3.5 years old.

Bearish view: The actual functions are not as amazing as expected, affected by the delayed release of AI functions.

There are also Wall Street analysts who do not believe in the "super cycle".

Mark Vena, CEO and Chief Analyst of SmartTech Research, believes that in order to win over customers, Apple needs to convince the public that AI functions on smartphones are not just a fashion item.

Anand Joshi, an analyst at TechInsights who was previously a professional engineer, pointed out that the possibility of the iPhone 16 triggering a super cycle for Apple is 50-50.

"The biggest driving force will be artificial intelligence, but I still have doubts about the user experience."

Varun Mishra, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, also believes that the functions brought by Apple's intelligence are not as "amazing", and considering that AI functions will be delayed for a few months, this may bring about a "staggered cycle (progressive growth)" of iPhone sales instead of a super cycle.

At a previous release event, it was announced that the first version of the AI function for the iPhone 16 would be released as part of a beta test in October, and more functions would be launched in the coming months. Chinese, French, Japanese, Spanish, and other language versions will be released next year.

Renowned Apple journalist Mark Gurman also believes that a super cycle for upgrades is unlikely to occur this year, partially due to many global consumers tightening their spending. A bigger issue may be attributed to the devices themselves - the new iPhone looks almost the same as last year's model, despite some minor upgrades and other features. To stimulate consumers to upgrade, there needs to be an entirely new design.

Gurman also added that Apple Intelligence is not yet fully developed. The initial version will lack many features, and major new functionalities for Siri and AI image generation are not expected until next year. Therefore, consumers may wait until next year to upgrade.

Editor/Somer