自2021年初以来，铂金价格已下跌约30%，而与其相似的金属钯和铑的跌幅更为显著。这种价格下跌主要是由于汽车行业需求的不确定性，汽车行业是这些金属的主要使用领域，用于减少柴油和汽油车辆的排放。价格下跌影响了南非等主要铂金生产国的高成本业务的盈利能力。The platinum market is facing the largest annual deficit in at least ten years in 2024, expected to exceed 1 million ounces, compared to last year's deficit of 0.731 million ounces.
According to the latest quarterly report from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the platinum market is facing the largest annual deficit in at least ten years in 2024, expected to exceed 1 million ounces, compared to last year's deficit of 0.731 million ounces. Nevertheless, the platinum price has so far reflected relatively slowly.
The report points out that the significant increase in the holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), coupled with strong demand for large platinum bars in China, is the main reason for the anticipated deficit. Trevor Raymond, CEO of WPIC, pointed out that despite the market facing a large gap, the platinum price does not seem to have responded accordingly. However, with the market sentiment turning bullish on long-term demand for autos, the strong fundamentals of platinum are expected to play a more significant role in the future.
Since the beginning of 2021, the price of platinum has fallen by about 30%, while the decline in similar metals palladium and rhodium has been more significant. This price decline is mainly due to the uncertainty in the automotive industry demand, as the automotive industry is the main area of use for these metals to reduce emissions from diesel and gasoline vehicles. The price decline has affected the profitability of high-cost operations in major platinum-producing countries such as South Africa.
The report also mentions that despite the underperformance of platinum compared to gold, its fundamentals continue to strengthen. From April to June, platinum ETF holdings saw a sharp increase of 0.444 million ounces, setting a new quarterly inflow record since 2020. It is expected that the annual growth will slow down to 0.15 million ounces.
In addition, retail investment in China grew more than twice in the previous quarter. It is expected that by 2024, the total demand for platinum will increase to 8.12 million ounces, and demand in the jewelry industry will also grow by 7%. Industrial and automotive demand is expected to increase slightly.
WPIC also predicts that due to business restructuring in South Africa and a decrease in refining output in Russia, the total mining volume of platinum in 2024 will decrease by 2% to 5.51 million ounces. Ground platinum inventories are expected to decrease by 25% to around 3 million ounces.
Edward Sterck, Head of Research at WPIC, stated that as the growth rate of the electric vehicle market slows down and the prices of palladium and rhodium normalize, the main determinants of platinum price are expected to return to fundamentals.
