One thing we could say about the analysts on AVIC (Chengdu)UAS Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688297) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the downgrade, the current consensus from AVIC (Chengdu)UAS' three analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.0b in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a sizeable 71% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to bounce 463% to CN¥0.42. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥3.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.56 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about AVIC (Chengdu)UAS' prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that AVIC (Chengdu)UAS' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 71% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 24% a year over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% per year. So it looks like AVIC (Chengdu)UAS is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.
The Bottom Line
The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for AVIC (Chengdu)UAS. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Given the serious cut to this year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on AVIC (Chengdu)UAS, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple AVIC (Chengdu)UAS analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
