Cheong补充说，虽然她的观点反映了市场上越来越强烈的悲观情绪，但这不是一个长期的预测。 “在没有新闻事件的情况下，市场可能会延续抛盘温和的势头。” The head of the UBS Group's US stock derivative strategy said that she expects the S&P 500 index to drop by at least 10% from its peak within a month.
"I'm tactically bearish for the next two months," Rebecca Cheong wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday. "Slightly disappointing upcoming economic data could trigger a massive pullback."
She recommended that investors buy ETF tail hedges to prevent losses, and listed iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF US), and iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) as preferred options.
Cheong added that although her view reflects an increasingly strong bearish sentiment in the market, this is not a long-term forecast. "In the absence of news events, the market may continue the moderate downward trend."
The U.S. stock market has been volatile in recent weeks, and traders are becoming increasingly anxious about signs that the U.S. economy may be cooling faster than expected. The S&P 500 index has dropped by about 3% from its late August peak.
Other strategists have a similarly cautious outlook on the near-term prospects, such as Christian Mueller-Glissmann of Goldman Sachs. In a report dated September 9th, he stated that while the S&P 500 index is unlikely to fall into a bear market, the stock market's risk-adjusted return on investment is expected to decline by the end of the year.
"Given the high stock valuations, mixed macro momentum, and rising policy uncertainty, there is a risk of further stock market declines," he stated.
