消息方面，9月10日晚间，国际油价出现大跌，其中布伦特原油期货跌3.69%，报69.19美元/桶，创2021年12月以来新低。① Why did international oil prices “dive” overnight? ② How does the market view subsequent oil price performance?
Financial Services News, September 11 (Editor: Hu Jiarong) Most oil stocks weakened today due to overnight “diving” in international oil prices. As of press release, CNPC (00857.HK), China National Offshore Oil (00883.HK), China Petroleum & Chemical (00386.HK), and CNOOC Oilfield Services (02883.HK) declined by 5.45%, 5.32%, 4.99%, and 3.75%, respectively.
Note: The performance of oil stocks
In terms of news, on the evening of September 10, international oil prices plummeted. Among them, Brent crude oil futures fell 3.69% to 69.19 US dollars/barrel, a new low since December 2021.
Note: The trend of Brent 1 crude oil futures since December 2021
As of press release, Brent crude futures rose 0.53% to $69.56.
Furthermore, OPEC released its latest monthly report. The organization lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next two years. This is the second time in a row that it has lowered its forecast.
OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 2.03 million b/d this year and 1.74 million b/d next year. Last month's forecasts were 2.11 million b/d and 1.78 million b/d, respectively; total demand will reach 0.1042 billion b/d in 2024, and total demand will reach 0.106 billion b/d in 2025.
Furthermore, related reports indicate that speculators' net long positions in crude oil are currently at their lowest level on record, which indicates that the decline in oil prices is partly driven by major changes in financial positions.
What do institutions think about the current weak trend in oil prices?
Goldman Sachs pointed out in its report that the market's expectation of an oversupply of crude oil may be a catalyst for weak oil prices, and predicts that the crude oil market may shift from tight supply to oversupply by 2025.
Morgan Stanley expects the market to transition from tight supply to balance by the end of 2024, and believes there may be an oversupply situation in 2025.
Citi's forecast is even more pessimistic, believing that oil prices may fall to around $60 per barrel by 2025, but it also indicates that OPEC+'s delayed production increase plan and geopolitical factors, such as disrupted Libyan supply, may provide some support for the price of Brent crude oil of 70-72 US dollars.
