Some Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600971) shareholders are probably rather concerned to see the share price fall 32% over the last three months. On the bright side the returns have been quite good over the last half decade. It has returned a market beating 52% in that time.
While the stock has fallen 6.1% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During five years of share price growth, Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity PowerLtd achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 5.9% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 9% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Dive deeper into Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity PowerLtd's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity PowerLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity PowerLtd, it has a TSR of 121% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity PowerLtd has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 3.6% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 17% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity PowerLtd , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
We will like Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity PowerLtd better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.