When companies post strong earnings, the stock generally performs well, just like Daphne International Holdings Limited's (HKG:210) stock has recently. We have done some analysis, and we found several positive factors beyond the profit numbers.
A Closer Look At Daphne International Holdings' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
For the year to June 2024, Daphne International Holdings had an accrual ratio of -0.11. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥117m, well over the CN¥83.5m it reported in profit. Daphne International Holdings shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. However, that's not the end of the story. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Daphne International Holdings.
To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. As it happens, Daphne International Holdings issued 9.1% more new shares over the last year. That means its earnings are split among a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out Daphne International Holdings' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
How Is Dilution Impacting Daphne International Holdings' Earnings Per Share (EPS)?
Three years ago, Daphne International Holdings lost money. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 76%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 65% over the same period. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is influencing shareholder earnings.
Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So Daphne International Holdings shareholders will want to see that EPS figure continue to increase. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Daphne International Holdings' profit was reduced by unusual items worth CN¥9.7m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Daphne International Holdings to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.
Our Take On Daphne International Holdings' Profit Performance
In conclusion, both Daphne International Holdings' accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative, but the dilution means that per-share performance is weaker than the statutory profit numbers imply. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that Daphne International Holdings' underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Daphne International Holdings.
Our examination of Daphne International Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.