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Investors in Zhejiang NHU (SZSE:002001) Have Unfortunately Lost 17% Over the Last Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 12, 2024 06:42

One of the frustrations of investing is when a stock goes down. But it's hard to avoid some disappointing investments when the overall market is down. The Zhejiang NHU Company Ltd. (SZSE:002001) is down 24% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -17% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 33% over the last three years. Even worse, it's down 8.5% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. We do note, however, that the broader market is down 4.2% in that period, and this may have weighed on the share price.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years that the share price fell, Zhejiang NHU's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.0% each year. The share price decline of 9% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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SZSE:002001 Earnings Per Share Growth September 11th 2024

We know that Zhejiang NHU has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Zhejiang NHU the TSR over the last 3 years was -17%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Zhejiang NHU shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 18% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Zhejiang NHU has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Of course Zhejiang NHU may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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