Three points to focus on in the afternoon session - Favorable development of buybacks based on the rise in US stocks.

Fisco Japan · Sep 11 23:28

12日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は8日ぶりに反発、米国株高を材料に買戻し優勢の展開に

・ドル・円は伸び悩み、円買いが下押し

・値上り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位はソフトバンクG＜9984＞

■日経平均は8日ぶりに反発、米国株高を材料に買戻し優勢の展開に

日経平均は8日ぶりに反発。前日比985.85円高（＋2.77％）の36605.62円（出来高概算9億2000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

11日の米国株式市場は上昇。ダウ平均は124.75ドル高（＋0.31％）の40861.71ドル、ナスダックは369.65ポイント高（＋2.17％）の17395.53、S&P500は58.61ポイント高（＋1.07％）の5554.13で取引を終了した。8月消費者物価指数（CPI）のコア指数が想定外に加速し大幅な利下げ期待を受けた買いが後退し、寄り付き後は下落。9月末の政府機関閉鎖リスクを警戒した売りも相場をさらに押し下げ、大幅続落となった。ただ、ゴールドマン・サックス・グループのソロモンCEOが同社主催のイベントにおいて、依然ソフトランディングを予想していると景気に楽観的見解を示したことで金融セクターの持ち直しでダウが下げ幅を縮小。ナスダックは半導体のエヌビディアなどが後押しし、上昇に転じ相場全体を支援した。終盤にかけ、ダウもプラス圏を回復し終了。

米国株の上昇や為替の円高進行一服などを受けて、東京市場は買い優勢で取引を開始した。足元の下げに対する買戻しが先物市場で入ったとの観測から、日経平均は上げ幅を広げ、前日比1200円超まで広げる場面もみられた。明日の9月限オプション・先物特別清算指数（SQ値）を意識した売買も入り、やや先物主導の相場展開となったことから、プライム市場の売買代金は1.9兆円に留まった。

日経平均採用銘柄では、国内証券会社のポジティブなレポートが材料視されてIHI＜7013＞、UBE＜4208＞が買われたほか、アドバンテスト＜6857＞、ソシオネクスト＜6526＞、東京エレクトロン＜8035＞、ソフトバンクグループ＜9984＞など半導体株も上昇。このほか、荏原製作所＜6361＞、トクヤマ＜4043＞、NEC＜6701＞、フジクラ＜5803＞、川崎重＜7012＞などが買われた。

一方、第一三共＜4568＞、アサヒグループHD＜2502＞、日清粉G＜2002＞、東京建物＜8804＞、大林組＜1802＞、NTT＜9432＞が売られた。日経平均採用以外では、足元強い動きをみせていた神戸物産＜3038＞は、決算内容が嫌気されて売り優勢となった。

全業種が上昇するなか、電気機器、非鉄金属、海運業、機械、精密機器の上げが目立った。

午前中、田村直樹日銀審議委員は、岡山県で開催されて金融経済懇談会にて、経済・物価に対して中立的な名目金利の水準（中立金利）について「最低でも1％程度だろう」と説明。日銀が経済・物価情勢の展望（展望リポート）で示した見通し期間の後半には「少なくとも1％程度まで短期金利を引き上げておくことが、物価上振れリスクを抑え、物価安定の目標を持続的・安定的に達成する上で必要だ」と語った。政策委員のなかでは金融政策の正常化に最も前向きで「タカ派」と位置付けられている田村審議委員が、より踏み込んだ話をしたように思えたが、為替市場では目立った動きは観測されなかった。

後場の東京市場は昨日同様、為替市場を睨んだ展開となりそうだが、明日のメジャーSQを前に先物市場のポジション調整も一段落した可能性はあることから、36500円水準での横ばい推移となろう。

■ドル・円は伸び悩み、円買いが下押し

12日午前の東京市場でドル・円は142円21銭から142円95銭まで値を切り上げたが、142円前半に失速した。米インフレ指標は想定ほど悪化せず、ドル買い先行。ただ、日銀の金融正常化への思惑が広がりやや円買いに振れ、主要通貨を押し下げた。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は142円21銭から142円95銭、ユーロ・円は156円63銭から157円36銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.1006ドルから1.1014ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・スペースマーケット＜4487＞、大和重工＜5610＞など、3銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値上り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位はソフトバンクG＜9984＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・日・7-9月期法人企業景気予測調査・大企業全産業景況判断指数：前期比+5.1（4-6月期：前期比+0.4）

・日・8月国内企業物価指数：前年比+2.5％（予想：+2.8％、7月：+3.0％）

【要人発言】

・田村日銀審議委員

「中立金利は最低でも1％とみている」

「見通し実現の場合、政策金利は名目中立金利まで上昇の必要」

「段階的に短期金利を引き上げ、反応を確認しながら適切な水準を探る必要」

「物価の先行き、上振れリスクが膨らんできているのではと懸念」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・特になし

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in late-day trading on the 12th.

・The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 8 days, bought back using high US stocks as a material, leading to an advantage

・Growth in the dollar and yen is sluggish, and yen purchases are declining

・The top contributor to price increases is Fast Rite ＜9983＞, and SoftBank G ＜9984＞ is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 8 days, and it became dominant due to buyback due to strong US stocks

The Nikkei Average rebounded for the first time in 8 days. The forward transaction was closed at 36605.62 yen (estimated turnover 0.9 billion 20 million shares), 985.85 yen higher (+ 2.77%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market rose on the 11th. The Dow average closed at 40861.71 dollars, which was 124.75 dollars higher (+ 0.31%), the Nasdaq closed at 17395.53, which was 369.65 points higher (+ 2.17%), and the S&P 500 closed at 5554.13, which was 58.61 points higher (+ 1.07%). The core index of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly accelerated, and purchases received expectations of drastic interest rate cuts retreated, and then fell after being close. Sales that were wary of the risk of government office closure at the end of September also further depressed the market price, and continued to decline drastically. However, at an event hosted by the company, CEO Solomon of Goldman Sachs Group expressed an optimistic view on the economy that he was still anticipating a soft landing, so the Dow narrowed the decline due to a pick-up in the financial sector. The NASDAQ was supported by semiconductors such as NVIDIA, etc., and turned upward and supported the overall market price. Towards the end of the game, the Dow also recovered to the positive zone and ended.

The Tokyo market began trading with a buying advantage in response to the rise in US stocks and a pause in the appreciation of the yen in exchange rates. From observations that buybacks in response to the current decline have entered the futures market, the Nikkei Average widened its range of increase, and there was also a scene where it widened to over 1200 yen compared to the previous day. Trading that was conscious of tomorrow's 9-month option/futures special settlement index (SQ value) also entered, and since the market price development was slightly futures-led, the trading price on the Prime Market remained at 1.9 trillion yen.

Among stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, positive reports from domestic securities companies were viewed as material, and IHI ＜7013＞ and UBE ＜4208＞ were bought, and semiconductor stocks such as Advantest ＜6857＞, Socionext ＜6526＞, Tokyo Electron ＜8035＞, and SoftBank Group ＜9984＞ also rose. In addition, Ebara Seisakusho ＜6361＞, Tokuyama ＜4043＞, NEC ＜6701＞, Fujikura ＜5803＞, Kawasaki Shigeru ＜7012＞, etc. were bought.

Meanwhile, Daiichi Sankyo ＜4568＞, Asahi Group HD ＜2502＞, Nissin Powder G ＜2002＞, Tokyo Tatemono ＜8804＞, Obayashi Gumi ＜1802＞, and NTT ＜9432＞ were sold. Other than adopting the Nikkei Average, Kobe Bussan ＜3038＞, which had been showing strong movements recently, became disgusted with financial results and had a sales advantage.

While all industries rose, increases in electrical equipment, nonferrous metals, shipping, machinery, and precision equipment were conspicuous.

In the morning, Bank of Japan deliberation committee member Tamura Naoki explained at the financial and economic meeting held in Okayama prefecture that “it's probably at least 1%” about the level of nominal interest rates (neutral interest rates) that are neutral to the economy and prices. In the latter half of the forecast period shown by the Bank of Japan in the economic and price situation outlook (outlook report), it was stated that “raising short-term interest rates to at least 1% is necessary to suppress the risk of price increases and achieve price stability goals sustainably and stably.” Among the policy committee members, the Tamura deliberation committee member, who is most positive about the normalization of monetary policy and is positioned as a “hawk faction,” seemed to have made a more in-depth discussion, but no noticeable movements were observed in the exchange market.

The backstage Tokyo market is likely to develop with an eye on the exchange market, similar to yesterday, but since there is a possibility that position adjustments in the futures market have come to an end ahead of tomorrow's major SQ, it will remain flat at the 36500 yen level.

■Growth in dollars and yen is sluggish, and yen purchases are declining

The value of the dollar and yen was rounded up from 142 yen 21 yen to 142 yen 95 yen in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 12th, but it stalled in the first half of 142 yen. The US inflation index did not deteriorate as much as expected, and dollar purchases took the lead. However, speculation about financial normalization by the Bank of Japan spread, and there was a slight shift towards yen purchases, which depressed major currencies.

The trading range up to this point is 142 yen 21 yen to 142 yen 95 sen for the dollar and yen, 156 yen 63 yen to 157 yen 36 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.1006 dollars to 1.1014 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・3 stocks, such as Space Market ＜4487＞ and Daiwa Heavy Industries＜5610＞, etc., have stopped high

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・The top contributor to price increases is Fast Rite ＜9983＞, and SoftBank G ＜9984＞ is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Japan/July-September Corporate Business Forecast Survey ・Large Enterprise All Industry Business Condition Judgment Index: +5.1 compared to the previous fiscal year (April-6: +0.4 compared to the previous fiscal year)

・Japan-August Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index: +2.5% compared to the previous year (forecast: +2.8%, July: +3.0%)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・Bank of Japan deliberation committee member Tamura

“I think the neutral interest rate is at least 1%”

“If the outlook is realized, it is necessary for policy interest rates to rise to nominal neutral interest rates”

“It is necessary to gradually raise short-term interest rates and search for an appropriate level while confirming the reaction”

“I am concerned that upward risk is increasing ahead of prices”

＜Domestic＞

・Nothing in particular

＜Overseas＞

・Nothing in particular

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～米国株高を材料に買戻し優勢の展開に

Three points to focus on in the afternoon session - Favorable development of buybacks based on the rise in US stocks.

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