1. On September 12 (Thursday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.19%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.18%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.19%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 1.27%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.83%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.89%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 1.37%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 1.68% to $68.44 per barrel. Brent crude rose 1.54% to $71.70 per barrel.

Individual stock news

US inflation data led to expectations of interest rate cuts, and unemployment benefits and PPI data became the focus tonight. With the release of US CPI data, the focus now turns to US PPI and initial jobless claims data to seek new trading incentives. At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the initial data on the number of jobless claims in the US after the seasonal adjustment for the week of September 7 will be released. It is estimated to be 0.23 million, compared to 0.227 million for the previous week. Due to the Federal Reserve's intense focus on the health of the labor market, unemployment benefit data has become even more important. If the number of jobless claims exceeds the expected 0.23 million, it may revive expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points. At 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) report. This data may also help the market assess the scale of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. According to the survey, the US PPI in August is expected to increase 0.1% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year. Furthermore, the US core PPI in August is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year.

The outlook for the oil market is bleak! IEA: A “sharp slowdown” in global oil demand growth and OPEC+ production cuts are no help. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a monthly report saying that the growth in global oil demand “has slowed sharply”, which has pushed oil prices to a low point in three years. According to the IEA, global oil consumption increased by 0.8 million b/d in the first half of this year, which is only one-third of the increase in the same period in 2023. This is the lowest level since oil demand plummeted during the 2020 pandemic. The agency's director, Fatih Birol, said in an interview in Paris that the economic growth of major consumer countries is slowing down, and the penetration of electric vehicles into transportation systems is progressing at a very strong rate. On Wednesday, the price of Brent crude fell below $70 per barrel for the first time since the end of 2021 due to concerns about economic data from oil consumers. Major disruptions in Libyan oil production and long-term OPEC+ supply restrictions have done little to stop oil prices from falling.

Goldman Sachs CEO: The job market is showing signs of weakness, and the Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said that due to signs of weakness in the job market, the Federal Reserve may still choose to cut interest rates more drastically than expected. Solomon said, “Based on further weakness in the labor market, [the Federal Reserve] has reason to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.” “I think that's about 30% likely.” Solomon said that his most optimistic guess is that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but it may cut interest rates two to three times before the end of the year. It is worth mentioning that in May, Solomon also predicted that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates in 2024, although he said that a soft landing is still the most likely outcome. In recent weeks, the focus of Federal Reserve officials has shifted from curbing inflation to the job market.

American consumption is once again rift! Deloitte warns: This year's holiday sales growth may hit a six-year low. US holiday sales are expected to grow at their slowest rate in six years, as continued inflation and depletion of savings make consumers more frugal during critical shopping periods, according to data released by Deloitte on Thursday. According to the data report, retail sales during the holiday season may increase by 2.3% to 3.3% between November 2024 and January 2025, reaching a total of 1.59 trillion US dollars. Compared with the previous year's increase of 4.3%, a total of 1.54 trillion US dollars. Sales increased 3.1% in 2018. According to information, holiday sales usually account for more than half of the annual revenue of US retailers, which makes the market very concerned about the performance of this period. Notably, this year's shorter holiday season — only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas — prompted retailers to launch higher promotional discounts earlier in the season.

UBS CEO: The market is too aggressive in expecting the Fed to cut interest rates and is optimistic about a soft landing in the US economy. The CEO of Swiss banking giant UBS Group said on Thursday that the fight against inflation is not over yet, and some investors seem to be expecting too much that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sharply this month. UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said in an interview, “I think the market seems to be expecting such aggressive action from the Federal Reserve.” The question of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of the next policy meeting on September 18 has already been answered to a large extent. The only question left is: how much to cut interest rates. Ermotti added that the “most important” issue for the Federal Reserve to consider is still inflation, which is still difficult and is not “fully controlled.”

Blackstone CFO: Cautiously optimistic about a soft landing in the US economy. Michael Chae, chief financial officer of Blackstone Group, said the company is “cautiously optimistic about a soft landing,” which shows that the alternative asset management company is betting that the Federal Reserve's move to curb inflation will not trigger a recession in the US economy. “Soft landings are difficult to achieve,” Chae said on Wednesday. This is a rare occurrence in history, but our situation today looks quite encouraging.” Chae said that Kuroishi's own inflation index (excluding housing costs and adding other indicators) is 1.7%. He said it would enable the US to reach its “target” for inflation. Wall Street generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates after a series of rate hikes beginning in March 2022. While these expectations generally rely on CPI data and employment statistics, Blackstone also draws data from its vast portfolios, which span real estate, acquisitions, and financing.

What signals does the “strange” fluctuation in US bond yields release? Allianz El Erian: The Federal Reserve's policy narrative “has no anchor.” Economist Mohamed El Erian said that two-year US Treasury yields fluctuated sharply on Wednesday, highlighting the lack of firm statements about the trajectory of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's guidance on monetary policy. On Wednesday, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell to its lowest level in two years, reaching 3.55% before the August CPI report was released. However, after the report showed that the increase in core CPI exceeded expectations, the yield fluctuated, soaring to 3.7%, then falling back to 3.59%, then rising to 3.68%. “This is part of the current 'anchorless' model, which urgently requires stable influence. This impact usually comes from dominant economic narratives, not current ping pong narratives, or forward-looking policy guidance, rather than an era where the Federal Reserve relies too much on data.” El Erian said.

Individual stock news

DOYU.US (DOYU.US)'s total revenue for the second quarter of 2024 was 1.032 billion yuan, and the revenue structure continues to be optimized. In the second quarter of 2024, the average quarterly MAU of Betta mobile was 44.1 million, and the number of paid users was 3.4 million. The total revenue of the platform was 1.032 billion yuan, gross profit of 84.2 million yuan, and gross profit margin of 8.2%. Betta recorded a net loss of 49.2 million yuan this quarter. The adjusted net loss was 45.5 million yuan, which narrowed sharply from month to month. At the same time, innovative business, advertising and other revenue was $0.242 billion, and the company's revenue structure was further optimized.

Nvidia (NVDA.US) “bull-back”? Wong In-hoon optimistically predicts that AI will bring trillion-dollar business opportunities. Nvidia CEO Hwang In-hoon said on Wednesday that the $1 trillion general-purpose data center will be modernized to speed up computing. While discussing the data center market, Hwang In-hoon stated, “This will happen no matter what.” Hwang In-hoon spoke at the Goldman Sachs Communications and Technology Conference on Wednesday and answered questions about the data center market and the growth of artificial intelligence (AI). Hwang In-hoon pointed out that this is why people think artificial intelligence will surpass the $1 trillion data center and IT field and enter skill fields such as digital assembly line workers (robots) and digital customer service (chatbots). Wong In-hoon added that “densification” of computers will occur. Nvidia wanted to shrink large data centers into a small area because data centers scattered over large areas were inefficient.

The results of the diet drug competition “fell cold,” and the stock price of Roche (RHHBY.US) fell nearly 5%. Roche's stock price fell on Thursday. One of the company's promising early diet drug candidates showed high temporary side effects during initial human trials. The company's stock price fell 4% when the European market opened later on Wednesday after Roche revealed details of the test. A brief summary of the study's success in July boosted the company's stock price. According to a report at the European Diabetes Research Association conference in Madrid, all 25 trial participants experienced mild or moderate side effects, or adverse events in industry terms, including those taking only an ineffective placebo. The side effects of this drug, known as CT-996, are mainly gastrointestinal (GI), just like similar drugs. CT-996 is part of Roche's acquisition of Carmot for $2.7 billion in December last year.

A number of former executives testified to the antitrust investigation. Is the “cash cow” of Google (GOOGL.US) advertising dangerous? A former Google executive testified in the US Department of Justice antitrust trial that eight years ago, after the website developed a method to bypass Google tools to increase online advertising revenue, Google considered cutting its advertising transaction costs. Google charges a 20% rate, which is the highest in the industry. Websites that sell ad slots have developed a new technology called Header Bidding (Header Bidding) in an attempt to counter Google's high fee structure and earn more revenue from transactions. Instead of cutting fees, Google developed a modified version of the technology in 2019. In a trial that began this week in federal court in Alexandria, Virginia, antitrust law enforcement officials accused Google of illegally monopolizing technology used to buy and sell online ad slots. Google controls a range of complex technology products that are used by websites to sell ad space.

Roku (ROKU.US) closed up nearly 7%! Cleveland Research: Q3 results may have exceeded expectations. Cleveland Research said on Wednesday that thanks to linear growth, TTD benefits, CPM (fee per thousand impressions) investment and execution, Roku's third-quarter results may exceed market expectations. “Roku's momentum in the third quarter looks strong, thanks to linear growth in Roku TV sales, programmatic efforts, and the firm's steady execution of new products/plans,” Cleveland Research said. Cleveland said the streaming equipment company's prospects “look more constructive,” judging by the competitiveness brought by its new products, new advertiser revenue, lower CPM, and better agency relationships. Cleveland Research predicts that most of the growth will be achieved through DSP. Roku closed up 6.84% to $70.15 on Wednesday.

A 1,300% increase in half a year! SpaceX's small competitor AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) is launching a satellite. AST SpaceMobile, a small telecommunications company that wants to compete with SpaceX, soared from $2 to $28 in just six months, becoming one of the hottest stocks in the world this year. It now faces a critical test to justify the stock's sharp surge. On Thursday morning, AST will launch the first five commercial satellites in Cape Canaveral, Florida, aboard SpaceX rockets into near-Earth orbit. Since hitting a record low in April, AST's stock price has risen by about 1,300%, making it the best-performing small-cap Russell 2000 index in the past six months. As of August 19, AST's stock price reached a high of $38.60, up more than 1,800% from the April low. The stock has since erased some of its gains, but maintained a sharp rise, and the stock rose 6.9% on Wednesday.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:30 Beijing time: Number of US jobless claims for the week ending September 7 (10,000), US PPI annual rate (%) for August.

20:15 Beijing time: The ECB announces the interest rate decision.

20:45 Beijing time: ECB President Lagarde held a press conference on monetary policy.

The next day at 03:40 a.m. Beijing time: US Democratic presidential candidate Harris delivered a campaign speech in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Performance Forecast

Friday morning: Adobe (ADBE.US)