Stock blogger Sanasae: Will the Nikkei Stock Average test the second bottom? Triangle consolidation? Targeting pullbacks of attention stocks [FISCO social reporter]

Fisco Japan · Sep 14 04:00

以下は、フィスコソーシャルレポーターの個人投資家「さなさえ」氏（ブログ：『さなさえの麗しき投資ライフ』）が執筆したコメントです。フィスコでは、情報を積極的に発信する個人の方と連携し、より多様な情報を投資家の皆様に向けて発信することに努めております。

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※2024年9月8日12時に執筆

皆様、おはこんばんちは。自民党総裁選は「小泉進次郎なのか、石破茂なのか、果たして…」なんて、投票権のない国民は蚊帳の外のまま、メディアだけが盛り上がっています。だけども問題は今月に入っても、我が家の米びつが空だという事。今年デビュー55周年の井上陽水大先生（御年76歳）のますますのご健勝と共に、農林水産省による備蓄米放出をお祈り中の…さなさえです。

夕刊フジ主催・株1GPグランドチャンピオン大会・準優勝（21年度）のアラフォー女性投資家が綴る当記事の連載も2年目…はや85回目です。今回も表題のコラムと共に、最近の注目株をご紹介していきます。

＜ボラティリティの高い相場は…＞

米国のハードランディングへの警戒感から株が売られ、9月4日の日経平均株価の終値は前日比1638.70円（4.2％）の大幅安の3万7047.61円でした。これは歴代5位の下げ幅となります。ちなみに今年の下落幅で言えば、8月5日の4451.28円安（歴代1位）、8月2日の2216.63円安（歴代3位）と、過去の下げ幅トップ5がここ最近に集約している事となります。（歴代12位には2024年7月25日の1285.34円安…なんて記録も）

ちなみに歴代1位の上げ幅で言えば、ご存じの通り先月8月6日の3217.04円高なのですから、今年は過去類を見ないボラティリティの高さとなっています。そんな「辰年相場」はまさに龍の如し…日本の猛暑にやられてか、激しくのたうち回る相場に思わず振り落とされてしまった個人投資家の方々も多かったのではないでしょうか。

さて、現在の日経平均株価のチャートは200日移動平均線を下回り、弱気相場に転換。今後のシナリオとしては8月5日の安値3万1156.12円に対する二番底をつけにいくか、三角保ち合いを形成していくかと見ています。そんなどっちつかずの相場局面においてこそ大切なのは「森ではなく木を見る投資を心掛ける」という事。つまり、全体相場が軟調な中でもチャートを乱さずひたすらに天を目指している株を狙っていくというのが定石です。という訳で、ここまでの相場を見てきて、わたしが「押し目があれば狙ってみたい」と見込んだ株をいくつかご紹介していきます。

＜話題のテーマ株や好業績への期待が高い株＞

まずは、直近の話題株の中から中国の大手眼科用医薬品企業と特許の独占実施権を付与する特許ライセンス契約を締結したと発表した事でストップ高となった坪田ラボ＜4890＞は一気にチャートが好転してきているように見えますね。同じバイオ株からは7日の安値361円に対する二番底をつけて反発したら面白そうだと見るＰＲＩＳＭＢｉｏ＜206A＞です。こちらはIPO後からまだ大きな材料発表はありませんので、そういう目線でも期待です。

そして、今は市場におけるAIやDX化への需要高を受ける銘柄への買いが堅調のようですね。大幅な赤字縮小の決算で上昇トレンドに入っているACCESS＜4813＞や、好業績の医療DX関連としても知られるeWeLL＜5038＞、人材派遣＆コンサル業のみらいワークス＜6563＞、そしてチャートはまだ強気にはならずとも、ドンピシャなテーマ性で思惑のあるメンバーズ＜2130＞は業績の進捗を横目に見ていこうと思います。

最後におまけで…ZOZOグループのアパレルブランドのyutori＜5892＞、データセンター関連として業績期待の高い日鉄ソリューションズ＜2327＞、サイバーセキュリティ関連からは、直近で子会社がＮＴＴＤＩＭ＜3850＞とディベロップメントパートナー契約を締結したと発表しているセラク＜6199＞をチェックしています

はい、ホントはもっと色々ご紹介したいのですが…今回は以上です。

ここ最近のわたしのブログでは、上記でご紹介した株以外にも「さなさえのひとり株1GP」として月毎の『注目３銘柄』をピックアップして、毎週末にその値幅を計測しています。もちろん株以外のネタも多種多様…怖いもの見たさでもお気軽にどうぞ (笑)。ではでは。Have a nice trade.

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執筆者名：さなさえ

ブログ名：『さなさえの麗しき投資ライフ』

Below is a comment written by a personal investor, "Sanasae", a Fisco Social Reporter (blog: 'Sanasae's Beautiful Investment Life'). At Fisco, we work to collaborate with individuals who actively disseminate information to provide a greater variety of information to investors.

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※Written on September 8, 2024 at 12 o'clock.

Good morning, everyone. The Liberal Democratic Party presidential election is causing a lot of excitement among the media, whether it's Shinsuke Koizumi or Shigeru Ishiba. But the real problem is that even though we're already in the middle of this month, our rice bin at home is empty. With prayers for the continued good health of Mr. Yosui Inoue, who celebrated his 55th debut anniversary this year at the age of 76, we hope for the release of rice from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries... from Sanasae.

This article is the 85th installment of the series written by a female investor in her 40s who was the runner-up in the Evening Fuji's sponsored Stock 1GP Grand Champion Tournament (21st edition). Along with the column in the title, we will introduce the recent stocks of interest.

Due to concerns about a hard landing in the United States, stocks were sold off, and the closing price of the Nikkei average on September 4th was 7047.61 yen, down 1638.70 yen (4.2%) from the previous day. This is the 5th largest decline in history. By the way, in terms of the size of the decline this year, it is worth mentioning that the top five declines have been concentrated recently, including a decline of 4451.28 yen (the largest decline in history) on August 5th and a decline of 2216.63 yen (the 3rd largest decline in history) on August 2nd. (There was also a record of a decline of 1285.34 yen on July 25th, 2024, which ranks 12th in history.)

By the way, in terms of the largest increase in history, as you may know, it was an increase of 3217.04 yen on August 6th last month, so this year has been characterized by unprecedented volatility. The "Year of the Dragon Market" is like a dragon... Many individual investors may have been thrown off by the volatile market, perhaps because of Japan's scorching summer.

The current chart of the Nikkei Stock Average has fallen below the 200-day moving average, turning into a bearish market. Looking ahead, it is expected to either form a second bottom against the low of 1156.12 million yen on August 5, or to form a triangular consolidation pattern. In such a indecisive market situation, it is important to focus on 'investing in individual stocks rather than the overall market'. In other words, it is an established practice to aim for stocks that are aiming for the sky without disturbing the chart, even in a soft overall market. So, based on the market so far, I will introduce several stocks that I think are worth aiming for if there are pullbacks.

Popular thematic stocks and stocks with high expectations for good performance.

First, the stock of Tsubota Lab <4890>, which has seen a sudden chart improvement after announcing a patent license agreement granting exclusive implementation rights for a patent with a major ophthalmic pharmaceutical company in China. From the same biotech stocks, PRISM Bio <206A>, which looks interesting for rebounding after forming a second bottom against the low of 361 yen on the 7th. There hasn't been any major material announcements since its IPO, so there is potential from that perspective as well.

Currently, there seems to be a strong demand for stocks related to AI and digital transformation in the market. Stocks that are showing strong buying momentum include ACCESS <4813>, which has entered an upward trend with a significant reduction in losses, eWeLL <5038>, known for its good performance in medical DX-related areas, mirai works <6563>, engaged in staffing and consulting businesses, and Members <2130>, which has speculation due to its perfect thematic chart, even though the chart has not turned bullish yet. I will keep an eye on the progress of their performance.

Finally, as a bonus... I am keeping an eye on Yutori <5892>, an apparel brand of the ZOZO Group, Nippon Steel Solutions <2327> with high performance expectations in the data center field, and Cellac <6199>, which has announced the signing of a development partner contract with NTT DIM <3850> as a subsidiary in the cybersecurity domain.

Yes, I would like to introduce more, but that's all for now.

In my recent blog, in addition to the stocks introduced above, I pick up the 'Top 3 Stocks to Watch' every month as 'Sanae's Solo Stock 1GP' and measure their price range every weekend. Of course, there are various topics other than stocks... Please feel free to enjoy it even if you are curious or scared (lol). Well then, have a nice trade.

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Author name: Sanasae

Blog name: 'Sanasae's Beautiful Investment Life'

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

株ブロガー・さなさえ：日経平均株価は二番底へ？三角保ち合い？押し目を狙いたい注目株【FISCOソーシャルレポーター】

Stock blogger Sanasae: Will the Nikkei Stock Average test the second bottom? Triangle consolidation? Targeting pullbacks of attention stocks [FISCO social reporter]

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