China Aluminum Cans Holdings Limited (HKG:6898) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 52% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 79%.

Since its price has surged higher, China Aluminum Cans Holdings may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 46.8x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For example, consider that China Aluminum Cans Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

China Aluminum Cans Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 19% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 5.5% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that China Aluminum Cans Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Shares in China Aluminum Cans Holdings have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of China Aluminum Cans Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with China Aluminum Cans Holdings (including 2 which make us uncomfortable).

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Aluminum Cans Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.