It was learned from the Zhongtong Finance and Economics APP that China Post Securities released a research report stating that last week, gold hit a new high, and with the expectation of a recession, it retraced. Gold rebounded with crude oil, while silver benefited from the slowdown in recession and rose even more. In the short term, the interest rate cut trade is basically over, and attention should still be paid to the US economic data. If the inflation expectation declines too quickly, it is expected that gold will also have some fluctuations and the upward movement may be a shake rather than smooth sailing. Meanwhile, the bullish view on the gold and silver ratio continues. On the other hand, the main variable affecting the future trend of copper prices is the inflation expectation of the US economy. If the recession is too rapid, even if there is sufficient expectation of interest rate cuts, it may still be more harmful than beneficial for copper prices, and the upward cycle of copper may have to wait for some time after the substantial reduction of interest by the Federal Reserve.

The main opinions of Zhongyou Securities are as follows:

Precious metals: gold hit a new high, and silver followed suit and rose.

Last week, gold hit a new high, and with the expectation of a recession, it retraced. Gold rebounded with crude oil, while silver benefited from the slowdown in recession and rose even more. In the end, last week, COMEX gold rose by 3.14%, and silver rose by 9.89%. China Post Securities believes that in the long term, the increase in the US deficit rate, combined with geopolitical disturbances and the nearshoreization of the US supply chain, will not change the logic of central bank gold purchases. In the short term, the interest rate cut trade is basically over, and attention should still be paid to the US economic data. If the inflation expectation declines too quickly, it is expected that gold will also have some fluctuations and the upward movement may be a shake rather than smooth sailing. Meanwhile, the bullish view on the gold and silver ratio continues.

Copper: bullish on the gold-copper ratio, the decline in copper is not yet over, and the expectation of a recession may return at any time.

Last week, LME copper prices rose by 3.38%, following the rebound in crude oil. The main variable affecting the future trend of copper prices is the inflation expectation of the US economy. If the recession is too rapid, even if there is sufficient expectation of interest rate cuts, it may still be more harmful than beneficial for copper prices, and the upward cycle of copper may have to wait for some time after the substantial reduction of interest by the Federal Reserve. Looking back in history, a relatively slow expectation of interest rate cuts may not quickly raise the expectation of inflation. Overall, last week's rise is most likely a rebound rather than a reversal, and the judgment that copper is difficult to outperform precious metals in the second half of 2024 is still maintained.

Lithium: The rumor of Ningde Times reducing production has caused a certain rebound in prices.

Last week, lithium carbonate rose by 2.34%, due to the rumors of Ningde Times reducing production in Jiangxi Yumushi Mine. However, even if the production reduction is implemented, the overall impact is limited. At the same time, if the price of lithium carbonate rebounds to above 0.09 million RMB/ton, high-cost mines may have the motivation to resume production, so the upward scope of the price is limited.

Tin: Macro factors drive the rise in tin prices, and tin exports from Indonesia have returned to normal.

Last week, the price of tin rose by 3.03%, mainly due to the release of the U.S. CPI data in August, supporting the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and boosting global risk appetite. In terms of inventory, the social inventory/futures inventory of tin ingots in China decreased by 3.56%/2.08%, and LME inventory increased by 0.85%. In terms of supply, the operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remained low, and Indonesia's refined tin exports in August increased by 29.12% year-on-year and 88% month-on-month, basically returning to normal levels in previous years. In terms of demand, according to SMM's survey, the production of tin solder materials by domestic sample companies in August was 1.64% less than that in July, and consumption is expected to rebound in September, the peak season.

Aluminum: The short-term fundamentals are strongly supported and destocking exceeded expectations.

Last week, the price of aluminum rose by 5.62%, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum destocked by 7.50%, exceeding expectations. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable, and there has been no news of power resumption for the capacity to be restored in Guizhou and Sichuan. Overseas, Malaysia's Chalco Aluminum unexpectedly had a fire accident, according to the company's related announcement, the accident caused 100 electrolytic cells in the third phase of the aluminum plant to stop running, and the recovery time may take four months, affecting the annual production capacity of electrolytic aluminum by about 0.1 million tons, with a monthly reduction of about 8,300 tons. However, there are still rumors in the market that all 0.32 million tons of the third phase of the aluminum plant have stopped production. In terms of demand, the operating rate of aluminum processing companies continues to grow, the transition to the peak season for aluminum plates and foils, and improvement in the trend of construction profiles. Aluminum cables are in a period of concentrated delivery, and the short-term fundamentals provide strong support for aluminum prices.

Investment advice: Recommend paying attention to Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd. (600489.SH), Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH), Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver&Tin Mining Co.,Ltd. (000426.SZ), Yunnan Tin Co.,Ltd. (000960.SZ), Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.,Ltd. (300428.SZ), CGN Mining Co.,Ltd. (01164) and so on.

Risk warning: Major fluctuations in macroeconomic conditions, lower-than-expected demand, unexpected supply release, and project progress falling behind expectation.