Tianfeng Securities issued a research report stating that Li Auto Inc (02015) has a "buy" rating, with an estimated adjusted net income of 10.5/14.8 billion yuan for 24/25 (compared to 13.9 billion yuan in 24). Q2 24 performance: Total revenue was 31.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6%; The automobile sales revenue was 30.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.0%.
The bank believes that concerns about future consumer momentum at the trading level led to an oversold situation after the financial report. In fact, automotive consumption showed a slight recovery trend in July under the drive of the old-for-new policy. The continuity of market demand after this is indeed uncertain, but the company's fundamentals are expected to gradually improve in Q3-Q4. In addition, the accelerated introduction of subsidies and preferential policies in various regions is expected to enhance the overall demand momentum. The bank predicts that the gross margin of autos is expected to be further released, determining that LI Auto Inc. is expected to release elasticity from gross profit and net income in the second half of the year.
In 24Q2, Li Auto delivered a total of 108581 vehicles, an increase of 25.5% compared to the previous year. In the new energy vehicle market above 0.2 million yuan, the market share increased from 13.6% in Q1 to 14.4% in Q2, ranking first in domestic automobile brand sales. Looking ahead, the Q3 auto delivery volume guidance for Li Auto is 0.145 million-0.155 million, with a year-on-year growth of 38.0%-47.5%. The large interval between the ranges reflects the uncertainty of macro demand in the second half of the year; The total revenue guidance is 39.4 billion-42.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%-21.6%. The overall gross margin target for Q3 is to return to 20%, and the expected annual R&D expenses are below 12 billion.