光大证券指出，当前巴以谈判陷入僵局，突发性地缘政治事件有望提振集运市场情绪；北美码头工会和美国海事联盟谈判进展缓慢，马士基发布警告提示罢工可能性上升，此外澳大利亚、加拿大、印度等地的港口也面临罢工风险，罢工将扰乱全球供应链，对集运有效运力构成影响，后续建议关注地缘政治事件和罢工风险对集运供给端的约束。Shipping and ports stocks continued to rebound recently. As of the time of publication, Cosco Shipping Holdings rose by 4.58%, Sinotrans Limited rose by 4.27%, OOIL rose by 2.11%, and Sitc rose by 3.29%.
Shipping and ports stocks continued to rebound recently, as of the time of publication,$COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK)$rose by 4.58%, $SINOTRANS (00598.HK)$rose by 4.27%, $OOIL (00316.HK)$rose by 2.11%,$SITC (01308.HK)$Increased by 3.29%.
On the news front, on September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.75% and 5.00%, the first rate cut by the Fed in 4 years. Zhongtaifutures previously pointed out that central banks of multiple countries worldwide have cut interest rates again, and the Fed may start a rate cut cycle in September. Expectations of macro liquidity supplementation may boost international trade.
Everbright Securities pointed out that the current Palestinian-Israeli negotiations have reached a deadlock, and unexpected geopolitical events are expected to boost the shipping market sentiment. Slow progress in negotiations between the North American port workers' union and the American Maritime Alliance, with Maersk issuing a warning of increased strike possibility. In addition, ports in Australia, Canada, India, and other places are also facing strike risks. Strikes will disrupt the global supply chain, affecting the effective shipping capacity and the subsequent advice is to pay attention to the constraints on the shipping supply side arising from geopolitical events and strike risks.
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