'Mass Slaughter': Wealth Manager Warns Of Market Correction, Digital Disruption As ETF, Passive Investing Goes Up And To The Right
'Mass Slaughter': Wealth Manager Warns Of Market Correction, Digital Disruption As ETF, Passive Investing Goes Up And To The Right
A renowned financial advisor, lawyer, and CEO of Creative Planning, Peter Mallouk, has expressed concerns about the future of the Registered Investment Advisory (RIA) industry despite projections that it will exceed $2.92 trillion by 2029.
著名的财务顾问、律师和创意规划公司的CEO彼得·马卢克对注册投资咨询(RIA)行业的未来表示担忧,尽管预计到2029年该行业规模将超过2.92万亿美元。
Mallouk discussed industry news with The Daily Upside at Future Proof, the world's largest wealth festival, in Huntington Beach, CA.
马卢克在加利福尼亚州亨廷顿海滩举办的未来保护世界最大财富节上与《每日利润》讨论了行业新闻。
"The market has been on a 15-year bull run and just gone straight up. When the markets normalize, there will be a mass slaughter. I mean, it's going to be really bad, and it's going to happen in a very short, multiyear period," he said, adding that many RIA's have grown complacent, owing to the success of the broad industry.
他说:“市场已经经历了15年的牛市,一直直线上升。当市场趋于正常化时,将会发生大规模的屠杀。我的意思是,情况将非常糟糕,并且将在很短的多年时间内发生。”他还补充说,由于整个行业的成功,许多RIA机构变得自满起来。
However, the market might struggle to hear him over the sounds of its fireworks. The FED has just cut interest rates by 50 basis points, equities are at fresh all-time highs, and the RIA industry seems to thrive.
然而,市场可能听不到他的声音,只会听到烟花声。联邦储备系统刚刚降低了利率50个基点,股票市场达到了创纪录的高位,RIA行业似乎蓬勃发展。
Franklin Templeton (NYSE:BEN), an industry leader, manages as many as 455 open-ended mutual funds, while Invesco (NYSE:IVZ) recently reported a 12% year-over-year increase in assets under management, surpassing $1.7 trillion. Despite these figures demonstrating the industry's momentum, Mallouk believes many firms could be vulnerable if market conditions change.
行业领导者富兰克林·坦普尔顿(NYSE:BEN)管理着多达455只开放式共同基金,而景顺(NYSE:IVZ)最近报告的管理资产同比增长12%,超过了1.7万亿美元。尽管这些数据显示了该行业的势头,马卢克认为,如果市场情况发生变化,许多公司都可能面临风险。
Mallouk also points to larger economic risks, particularly related to deficit spending – which is set to reach $1.9 trillion in 2024, up from $1.7 trillion in 2023.
马卢克还指出了较大的经济风险,特别是与赤字支出有关-预计到2024年将达到1.9万亿美元,而2023年为1.7万亿美元。
"It's really hard to get your brain around just how much money is sloshing around the system and what deficit spending does to the economy," he said.
他说:“真的很难理解体系中有多少资金在流动,以及财政赤字对经济的影响。”
Technology is another area where Mallouk sees both promise and peril. While advancements like artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance efficiency and scalability, they also introduce risks, including cybersecurity threats and misinformation.
科技是马卢克看到的既有希望又有风险的领域。人工智能等技术可以提高效率和可扩展性,但也带来了网络安全威胁和虚假信息等风险。
Canadian veteran financial planner Jason Pereira recently echoed a similar sentiment, particularly addressing the hype surrounding generative AI.
加拿大资深理财规划师贾森·佩雷拉最近也表达了类似的观点,特别是针对生成式人工智能周围的炒作。
"Generative AI is the most meaningful technological change since mobile computing," he wrote for Kitces. While recognizing it as the biggest transformative advancement in years, he cautions that its full impact won't be felt immediately.
他在Kitces撰文称:“生成式人工智能是自移动计算以来最具意义的技术变革。” 虽然承认这是多年来最重大的转变,但他警告说,其全面影响不会立即显现。
"Can they expect to find an AI tool that changes everything today? Quite simply, no. Can it happen in 10 years? That's a much more probable outcome," he noted.
他指出:“他们能指望今天找到一种改变一切的人工智能工具吗?简单地说,不行。十年内可能会发生吗?这是一个更有可能的结果。”
Pereira stresses that while AI can speed up certain processes, its effectiveness depends on how well advisors understand and use the technology.
佩雷拉强调,虽然人工智能可以加快某些流程,但其效果取决于顾问们对技术的理解和运用程度。
"It doesn't make things better; it makes things faster—if you know what you're doing," he explained, suggesting that firms should focus on mastering technology rather than relying on it to solve all their problems.
他解释说:“它并不会让事情更好;它只会让事情更快——如果你知道你在做什么。” 他建议公司应专注于掌握技术,而不是依赖技术解决所有问题。
- Bank Stocks Hit Inflection Point After Fed's 50 Basis Point Cut, Analyst Reveals Top Picks
- 在联邦基准利率下调50个基点后,银行股触及拐点,分析师透露了首选股。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock