Former president Donald Trump, once leading in the polls, now finds himself trailing by 4 points after a 9-point swing in the election odds over the past 9 days.
What Happened: The reversal comes as the race for the 2024 U.S. presidential election intensifies, with Trump losing ground after earlier momentum in August.
According to Polymarket data, Trump's odds of winning the election have slipped significantly since Sep. 10, which was right before the first debate with Vice President Kamala Harris.
At that time, Trump was positioned favorably, but unfavorable polls following the debate have shifted voter sentiment and brought about the notable change in his standing.
The former President continues to slip in the election odds, with Vice President Harris building on her small lead from 24 hours ago.
Electionbettingodds.com, a site aggregating election odds from different sources, even shows an almost 8-point lead for the Vice President, who is ahead by 53.3% to Trump's 45.6%.
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Why It Matters: The shifting dynamics of the presidential race echo concerns raised by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, who has warned about the potential risks of Trump's divisive presence in the political landscape.
"Trump is a polarizing person. He's for it," Scaramucci said at a panel, highlighting how Trump's influence could further divide opinions on key issues, including cryptocurrencies and broader economic policies.
The former White House Communications Director also commented on the Vice President's stance on cryptocurrencies, saying he is working with other bitcoin advocates on "distancing" her from SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
These developments will likely be a major topic at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where industry leaders will discuss how the outcome of the election could impact markets, including digital assets and the broader financial landscape.
曾经在民意调查中处于领先地位的前总统唐纳德·特朗普在过去9天选举赔率波动了9个百分点之后,现在发现自己落后了4个百分点。
发生了什么:这种逆转是在2024年美国总统大选的竞选加剧之际发生的,特朗普在8月份早些时候的势头之后失利。
根据Polymarket的数据,自9月10日以来,特朗普赢得大选的几率已大幅下降,也就是与副总统卡马拉·哈里斯进行首次辩论之前。
当时,特朗普处于有利地位,但辩论后不利的民意调查改变了选民的情绪,使他的立场发生了显著变化。
这位前总统的选举几率继续下滑,副总统哈里斯在24小时前的微弱领先优势基础上再接再厉。
汇总来自不同来源的选举赔率的网站ElectionBettingOdds.com甚至显示副总统领先近8个百分点,领先53.3%,至特朗普的45.6%。
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为何重要:总统竞选动态的变化呼应了SkyBridge Capital创始人安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇提出的担忧,他警告说,特朗普在政治格局中存在分裂性存在的潜在风险。
“特朗普是一个两极分化的人。他赞成。” 斯卡拉穆奇在一次小组讨论会上说,他强调了特朗普的影响力如何进一步分裂对包括加密货币和更广泛的经济政策在内的关键问题的看法。
这位前白宫传播总监还评论了副总统在加密货币问题上的立场,称他正在与其他比特币倡导者合作,让她与美国证券交易委员会主席加里·根斯勒 “保持距离”。
这些发展很可能会成为11月19日Benzinga的数字资产未来活动的主要话题,届时行业领导者将讨论选举结果将如何影响市场,包括数字资产和更广泛的金融格局。
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