David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Yunnan Energy New Material Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002812) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is Yunnan Energy New Material's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Yunnan Energy New Material had CN¥15.7b of debt, up from CN¥12.8b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥4.72b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥11.0b.
How Healthy Is Yunnan Energy New Material's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Yunnan Energy New Material had liabilities of CN¥13.7b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥7.87b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥4.72b and CN¥7.43b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥9.38b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Yunnan Energy New Material has a market capitalization of CN¥24.4b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Yunnan Energy New Material has net debt to EBITDA of 3.1 suggesting it uses a fair bit of leverage to boost returns. On the plus side, its EBIT was 7.6 times its interest expense, and its net debt to EBITDA, was quite high, at 3.1. Shareholders should be aware that Yunnan Energy New Material's EBIT was down 57% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Yunnan Energy New Material can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Yunnan Energy New Material saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Yunnan Energy New Material's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Yunnan Energy New Material to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Yunnan Energy New Material (of which 2 are concerning!) you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
