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Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corporation Limited (HKG:1596) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 25% Price Plummet

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 19 18:44

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corporation Limited (HKG:1596) share price has dived 25% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 45% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, Hebei Yichen Industrial Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 41.3x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 8x and even P/E's below 5x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For example, consider that Hebei Yichen Industrial Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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SEHK:1596 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry September 19th 2024
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hebei Yichen Industrial Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Hebei Yichen Industrial Group would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 26% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 81% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hebei Yichen Industrial Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Hebei Yichen Industrial Group's P/E

Hebei Yichen Industrial Group's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Hebei Yichen Industrial Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Hebei Yichen Industrial Group that you need to take into consideration.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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