摩根士丹利发布研报指出，香港在受惠于美息下降及内地经济增长加快具独特优势。美联储预计减息亦对估值处历来最低水平，且提供可持续及高派息的香港地产股正面。该行料香港楼价在今年跌8%后，明年回升6%。即使住宅价格自2021年调整三成，香港住宅可负担比率目前仍处历史高端的50%，但假设明年按揭利率回落至3.2%下，有关比率料改善至45%，且租金扣除供楼回报亦将转正。Hong Kong property stocks continued to rise. As of the time of writing, New World Development (00017) rose 2.77%, to HKD 7.42; Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823) rose 1.67%, to HKD 39.5; SHK PPT (00016) rose 1.18%, to HKD 81.55; Wharf REIC (01997) rose 1.08%, to HKD 23.3.
According to the wiseFinance app, Hong Kong property stocks continued to rise. As of the time of writing, New World Development (00017) rose 2.77%, to HKD 7.42; Link Real Estate Investment Trust (00823) rose 1.67%, to HKD 39.5; SHK PPT (00016) rose 1.18%, to HKD 81.55; Wharf REIC (01997) rose 1.08%, to HKD 23.3.
On the news front, on September 19, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that it would lower the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.25%, previously 5.75%. Overnight, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut. Under the linked exchange rate system in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority adjusted the benchmark interest rate to 5.25% in response to the 50 basis point rate cut in the United States.
Morgan Stanley's research report pointed out that Hong Kong has unique advantages in benefiting from the decline in US interest rates and the accelerated growth of the mainland economy. The Federal Reserve's expected rate cut is also positive for Hong Kong property stocks, which are already at historically low valuations and provide sustainable and high dividends. The bank predicts that Hong Kong property prices will rebound by 6% next year, after a 8% decline this year. Even though residential prices have dropped by 30% since 2021, the current affordability ratio of Hong Kong residences is still at a historically high level of 50%. However, assuming a mortgage rate of 3.2% next year, the ratio is expected to improve to 45%, and rental deductions for property returns will also turn positive.
