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Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get Kerry Logistics Network (HKG:636) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Three Years

過去3年間の利益成長の陽性は、株主に有利な利回りをもたらしていません。

Simply Wall St ·  09/19 22:37

This week we saw the Kerry Logistics Network Limited (HKG:636) share price climb by 13%. But that is small recompense for the exasperating returns over three years. In that time, the share price dropped 57%. So the improvement may be a real relief to some. Perhaps the company has turned over a new leaf.

While the stock has risen 13% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Although the share price is down over three years, Kerry Logistics Network actually managed to grow EPS by 24% per year in that time. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

We think that the revenue decline over three years, at a rate of 16% per year, probably had some shareholders looking to sell. After all, if revenue keeps shrinking, it may be difficult to find earnings growth in the future.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

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SEHK:636 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 20th 2024

If you are thinking of buying or selling Kerry Logistics Network stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Kerry Logistics Network's TSR for the last 3 years was -51%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Kerry Logistics Network has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 19% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 1.1%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Kerry Logistics Network better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Kerry Logistics Network that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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