Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co., Ltd. (HKG:1543) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 34% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 11% over that time.

After such a large jump in price, Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 23.5x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 5x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

The earnings growth achieved at Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 10% last year. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with EPS shrinking 59% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

The strong share price surge has got Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.