Despite an already strong run, Zhongtong Guomai Communication Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603559) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 38% in the last thirty days. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 13% is also fairly reasonable.
Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Zhongtong Guomai Communication's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 3.9x is worth a mention when the median P/S in China's IT industry is similar at about 3.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
What Does Zhongtong Guomai Communication's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Zhongtong Guomai Communication over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Zhongtong Guomai Communication, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Zhongtong Guomai Communication would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 17%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 51% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Zhongtong Guomai Communication's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Zhongtong Guomai Communication's P/S
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Zhongtong Guomai Communication's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
The fact that Zhongtong Guomai Communication currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Zhongtong Guomai Communication (at least 2 which are concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.