To the annoyance of some shareholders, Kinergy Corporation Ltd. (HKG:3302) shares are down a considerable 33% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 51% share price decline.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Kinergy's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Electronic industry is similar at about 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
How Kinergy Has Been Performing
Revenue has risen at a steady rate over the last year for Kinergy, which is generally not a bad outcome. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this good revenue growth might only be parallel to the broader industry in the near future. If not, then at least existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Kinergy, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Kinergy?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Kinergy would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 2.6% gain to the company's revenues. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 16% overall drop in revenue. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Kinergy's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
What Does Kinergy's P/S Mean For Investors?
Following Kinergy's share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
The fact that Kinergy currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Kinergy you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Kinergy's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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