It's possible to achieve returns close to the market-weighted average return by buying an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more -- or less -- than that. While the China Everbright Bank Company Limited (SHSE:601818) share price is down 20% over half a decade, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was 7.5%. That's better than the market which declined 1.1% over the same time.
While the stock has risen 3.3% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Looking back five years, both China Everbright Bank's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 0.1% per year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 4% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days. The low P/E ratio of 4.74 further reflects this reticence.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into China Everbright Bank's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of China Everbright Bank's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of China Everbright Bank, it has a TSR of 7.5% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that China Everbright Bank shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 6.5% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 1.5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Everbright Bank you should know about.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.