9月24日，国新办召开新闻发布会，一行一局一会联合发布政策。人民银行宣布，下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，向金融市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。7天逆回购操作利率下调0.2个百分点，并在年内择机下调存款准备金率0.25-0.5个百分点。Which individual stocks in the Hong Kong stock market's nonferrous sector are attracting the most attention from funds? What signal does the rise in domestic copper prices to a near two-month high indicate?
According to Caixin on September 24th, driven by the macro bullish trend of the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the Hong Kong stock market exploded today, with the nonferrous metal sector across the board soaring. Varieties such as lithium, copper, and aluminum are in high demand.
As of the report, Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696.HK) and Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) both rose by over 7%, Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) rose by over 6%, China Hongqiao (01378.HK), CMOC Group Limited (03993.HK) both rose by more than 5%, Aluminum Corporation of China (02600.HK), and Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK) followed the uptrend.
On September 24th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference jointly releasing policies from various governmental departments. The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market. The 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate was lowered by 0.2 percentage points, with plans to opportunistically reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25-0.5 percentage points within the year.
Citic Securities previously analyzed that in the environment of the first 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the US entering a rate-cut cycle, the flexibility of domestic monetary policy has increased. With macro price signals weakening, the necessity for domestic policy reinforcement is growing. In addition, there is a significant improvement in the Renminbi exchange rate expectations, and incremental policies are expected to increase.
It is worth noting that copper prices, which are sensitive to fundamentals, have already broken out of their upward trend recently, highlighting a warming signal. As of the report, Shanghai copper futures rose by 1.79%, reaching 76,760 yuan per ton, hitting a high point in nearly two months.
Citic Securities stated that compared to the last copper price boom cycle starting in March, all factors currently have a more positive and clearer potential impact on copper prices. Historical data shows that under the background of the US economy's remaining resilience, precautionary rate cuts will boost copper prices; optimistic about the resonance drive of copper prices from commodity and financial attributes.
According to Everbright Securities' report by Wang Zhaohua and Fang Yutao on September 23, domestic copper inventories have been declining since July. As of the week ending September 20, domestic social copper inventories plummeted by 16.7% compared to the previous week, while overseas LME copper inventories fell by 2.6% compared to the previous period, indicating a boost in demand.
Haitong International also pointed out in its report on September 24 that macro bullishness and improving demand jointly support the prices of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum. The current tight spot market supports aluminum oxide prices, coupled with the positive downstream consumption trend. The improvement in demand during the traditional high season of 'Golden September and Silver October' is worth noting.
On the other hand, the low stock price environment of energy metals like lithium continuously squeezes industry supply, leading to increased uncertainty in new supply side projects, which is conducive to the improvement of the supply-demand landscape.
Overall, with the recent Fed rate cut and domestic interest rate reductions, nonferrous metals and other natural resources are more sensitive to liquidity, and are expected to lead the way in the short term ahead of the Hang Seng Index.
