The stubborn inflationary pressure that kept the Federal Reserve in abeyance until earlier this month could be a thing of the past but another risk could supersede it, an economist said on Monday.
What Happened: The artificial intelligence technology is a "deflationary nuclear bomb," said prominent investor and macroeconomist Raoul Pal. "The cheaper it gets, the cheaper everything gets... electricity is the other one," he said.
He also said, "We are reaching the deflationary tipping point there too, which accelerates AI...which accelerates cheaper energy and compute...," he said.
Pal's comments came in response to a post by a social-media user in which he quoted comments from Dane Vahey, Head of Strategic Marketing at OpenAI. The executive said in a presentation that the cost per million tokens fell from $36 to 25 cents in the past 18 months. "AI has been the greatest cost-depreciating technology ever invented," he said.
As I've said, AI is a deflationary nuclear bomb. The cheaper it gets, the cheaper everything gets... electricity is the other one. No one believes it now but we are reaching the deflationary tipping point there too, which accelerates AI...which accelerates cheaper energy and...
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) September 24, 2024
Why It's Important: A similar view was expressed by Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood at a Forbes conference late last year. The fund manager mentioned AI as a source of deflation. Sun Microsystems co-founder Vinod Khosla said in a December tweet, "AI should be hugely deflationary over twenty-five years."
Khosla, who is also a venture capitalist, having invested in OpenAI, said the current measures of GDP and economy will be less relevant but goods and services in great abundance.
AI and automation can perk up productivity and efficiency, thereby enabling producers to meet consumer demand without a concomitant increase in prices.
Robots are now being manufactured on a large scale and have various use cases across the manufacturing industries. Elon Musk's Tesla is developing a humanoid robot called Teslabot. On the second-quarter earnings call, Musk said the potential that general-purpose humanoid robots offer is several times that of the $5 trillion opportunity for robotaxis.
Apart from keeping prices, artificial general intelligence will also boost GDP, Ark Invest's Wood said back in early 2022 – a time when the AI revolution was yet to kickstart. A breakthrough in AGI will lead to the acceleration of GDP within the next six to 12 years, she said, adding that GDP growth will increase from the 3-5% year-over-year rate currently to 30-50% per year.
On the flip side, there are worries that the benefits of AI would come at the expense of humans and could lead to large-scale job losses.
In premarket trading on Tuesday, the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (NASDAQ:AIQ) edged up 0.11% at $36.16, according to Benzinga Pro data. The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:BOTZ) was up a more modest 0.04% at $31.15.
一位经济学家周一表示,使美联储一直搁置到本月早些时候的顽固通胀压力可能已成为过去,但另一种风险可能会取而代之。
发生了什么:著名投资者兼宏观经济学家拉乌尔·帕尔说,人工智能技术是 “通货紧缩核弹”。他说:“它变得越便宜,所有东西都越便宜... 电力是另一回事。”
他还说:“我们在那里也达到了通货紧缩的临界点,这加速了人工智能... 加速了更便宜的能源和计算...” 他说。
帕尔的评论是对一位社交媒体用户的帖子的回应,他在帖子中引用了OpenAI战略营销主管戴恩·瓦希的评论。这位高管在一次演讲中表示,在过去的18个月中,每百万个代币的成本从36美元下降到25美分。他说:“人工智能一直是有史以来发明的最大的成本折旧技术。”
正如我所说,人工智能是通货紧缩的核弹。它变得越便宜,所有东西都越便宜... 电力是另一回事。现在没人相信,但我们在那里也达到了通货紧缩的临界点,这加速了人工智能... 它加速了更便宜的能源和...
— 拉乌尔·帕尔 (@RaoulGMI) 2024 年 9 月 24 日
为何重要:去年年底,方舟投资创始人凯西·伍德在《福布斯》会议上也表达了类似的观点。该基金经理提到人工智能是通货紧缩的来源。太阳微系统联合创始人维诺德·科斯拉在12月的一条推文中说:“人工智能应该在二十五年内出现巨大的通货紧缩。”
同时也是风险投资家的科斯拉曾投资过OpenAI。他说,目前的GDP和经济指标将不那么重要,但商品和服务将非常丰富。
人工智能和自动化可以提高生产力和效率,从而使生产者能够在不同时提高价格的情况下满足消费者的需求。
机器人现在正在大规模制造,在制造业中有各种用例。埃隆·马斯克的特斯拉正在开发一种名为Teslabot的人形机器人。在第二季度财报电话会议上,马斯克表示,通用类人机器人提供的潜力是机器人出租车5万亿美元机会的几倍。
Ark Invest的伍德早在2022年初就表示,除了保持价格外,人工通用智能还将提振GDP——当时人工智能革命尚未启动。她说,AGI的突破将导致未来六到十二年内GDP的加速,并补充说,GDP增长将从目前的3-5%增长到每年30-50%。
另一方面,有人担心人工智能的好处将以牺牲人类为代价,并可能导致大规模失业。
根据Benzinga Pro的数据,在周二的盘前交易中,Global X人工智能与科技ETF(纳斯达克股票代码:AIQ)小幅上涨0.11%,至36.16美元。Global X机器人与人工智能ETF(纳斯达克股票代码:BOTZ)上涨了0.04%,至31.15美元。