日前，国新办举办新闻发布会，宣布多项利好房地产的政策，涉及降准、降息、调降存量房贷利率、降低二套房首付比例等多项重磅举措。中信证券指出，政策利好有望向全产业链传导，促进涉房建筑工程和建材企业经营企稳、盈利修复。该行认为，水泥行业已处于周期性盈利底部，若政策支持下后续地产销售能够企稳，则地产对于水泥需求的拖累不会更差，加之近年水泥供给格局逐步改善，头部企业盈利能力修复预期逐步向好。Cement stocks collectively rose, as of the time of publication, CNBM (03323) rose by 6.01%, closing at HK$2.47; Conch Cement (00914) rose by 5.27%, closing at HK$19.58; Asia Cement (China) (00743) rose by 3.17%, closing at HK$2.28.
According to the Wisdom Financial APP, cement stocks collectively rose, as of the time of publication, CNBM (03323) rose by 6.01%, closing at HK$2.47; Conch Cement (00914) rose by 5.27%, closing at HK$19.58; Asia Cement (China) (00743) rose by 3.17%, closing at HK$2.28; Huaxin Cement (06655) rose by 1.84%, closing at HK$7.2.
On the news front, as we enter September, cement prices in various regions have seen different degrees of increases. According to Century Architecture Information, in early September, cement prices in many areas of Zhejiang rose by 10-20 yuan/ton, with Zhejiang completing the first round of price increases for the entire province in September; in markets like Southern Jiangsu, some brands have successively raised prices by 20-30 yuan/ton, with most brands maintaining price increases ranging from 10-30 yuan/ton; in many areas of Sichuan, it was announced that starting from 6th, various types of bagged and bulk cement factory prices will be increased by 40 yuan/ton on the original prices.
Recently, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, announcing multiple bullish policies for the real estate sector, involving reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, adjustments to existing home mortgage rates, and reductions in down payment ratios for second homes, among other significant measures. CITIC Securities pointed out that the favorable policies are expected to transmit to the entire industry chain, promoting stability in the operations and profitability of real estate construction engineering and building materials companies. The bank believes that the cement industry is already at the bottom of the profit cycle, and if subsequent real estate sales can stabilize under policy support, the drag of real estate on cement demand will not worsen further. Moreover, with the gradual improvement in the cement supply landscape in recent years, the profit restoration expectations for leading companies are gradually improving.
