集换式卡牌(TCG) 是指有特定主题，可供消费者收藏、交换或者畅玩的卡牌，分为竞技型(核心功能为对战， 代表为宝可梦 PTCG 等) 和非竞技型(核心功能为收藏和赏玩，代表为 NBA 球星卡、 小马宝莉卡等)。 量价齐升驱动下， 市场规模或延续增长， 根据灼识咨询， 中国集换式卡牌市场规模由 2017 年的 7 亿元增加至 2022 年的 122 亿元， CAGR 为 78.4%， 2027 年有望达到 310 亿元，2022-2027 年 CAGR 为 20.5%。 量的角度来看， 卡牌复购率及用户规模有望提升，(1) 复购率方面， 卡牌通过绑定 IP 获得年轻消费者青睐，拆卡玩法或强化用户粘性，提升复购率;(2) 用户规模方面， 基于卡牌社交属性及卡牌商持续开发新品类、直播拆卡等方式吸引新增用户， 或持续破圈。 价格角度来看， IP 效应、稀有度、卡牌功力等影响单卡价格， 日本/美国集换卡人均支出分别为中国(2022年为 8.6 元)的 11/6 倍， 我国卡牌人均支出有较大提升空间。The card production supply chain is mature, the categories are light, and high-quality IP resources may become a core competitive element. Content parties with rich IP reserves enter the card industry through “authorization+self-management”.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that the size of the tradable card market may continue to grow, driven by a sharp rise in volume and price. According to Insight Consulting, the size of the trading card market in China increased from 0.7 billion yuan in 2017 to 12.2 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 78.4%, which is expected to reach 31 billion yuan in 2027. Looking at the competitive landscape, the total market share of the top five companies in total product transactions in the card industry in 2022 was 76.7%, the leading card game market share was 71.0%, and the industry concentration was high. However, emerging online brands are booming, and the competitive landscape is expected to open up. The card production supply chain is mature, the categories are light, and high-quality IP resources may become a core competitive element. Content parties with rich IP reserves enter the card industry through “authorization+self-management”.
Trading cards meet the diverse needs of users. Driven by sharp increases in volume and price, the market size may continue to grow rapidly
Collectible cards (TCG) refer to cards with a specific theme that can be collected, exchanged, or played by consumers. They are divided into competitive types (the core function is battle, represented by Pokémon PTCG, etc.) and non-competitive (the core function is to collect and enjoy, represented by NBA star cards, My Little Pony cards, etc.). Driven by a sharp rise in volume and price, the market size may continue to grow. According to insight and consulting, the size of the trading card market in China increased from 0.7 billion yuan in 2017 to 12.2 billion yuan in 2022. The CAGR is 78.4%, which is expected to reach 31 billion yuan in 2027, and the CAGR is 20.5% in 2027. From a quantitative perspective, the card repurchase rate and user scale are expected to increase. (1) in terms of repurchase rate, cards are favored by young consumers by binding IP, and card removal methods or user stickiness are enhanced to increase the repurchase rate; (2) in terms of user size, the card's social attributes and card merchants continue to attract new users or continue to break the circle based on card social attributes and card merchants. From a price perspective, the IP effect, rarity, card power, etc. affect the price of a single card. The Japan/US exchange card per capita expenditure is 11/6 times that of China (8.6 yuan in 2022), respectively, and there is plenty of room for improvement in China's card spending per capita.
The industry is currently highly concentrated. The rise of new brands may drive the pattern to open up, and IP is the core competitive element
Looking at the competitive landscape, the total market share of the top five companies in total product transactions in the card industry in 2022 was 76.7%, the leading card game market share was 71.0%, and the industry concentration was high. However, emerging online brands are booming, and the collection card company, Hitcard, and Wanhua Yunyou have launched differentiated categories. Sales are growing rapidly, and the competitive landscape is expected to open up. The card production supply chain is mature, the categories are light, and high-quality IP resources may become a core competitive element. Content parties with rich IP reserves enter the card industry through “authorization+self-operation” and launch related card products for their own IP, which is expected to expand the IP monetization space, and companies with stable and strong channel systems are also expected to benefit from the high growth of the industry.
Actively lay out tradable card tracks, and select companies with abundant high-quality IP reserves and outstanding channel operation capabilities
In terms of IP reserves, Aofei Entertainment has high-quality IPs such as Balala, Super Flying Man, and Quantum Team. It will launch the “Armor Warrior” collection cards in July 2024, and will also launch new IP card products such as the Sheep Goat and Grey Wolf in 2024; under the “Big IP Development” strategy, Shanghai Film has launched the “Big Haunted Tiangong” IP trading card in the “Big IP Development” era, and is gradually building a “card hero” universe. Currently, Hulu Brothers, Sun Wukong, Nana, and Black Sergeant Cats Joined the Card League Card Universe; used by Reading Text Group The huge Internet text IP resources have raised the maximum amount of content monetization. Thanks to the launch of the “With the Phoenix” and “Celebrate the Years” cards, the total GMV of 2024H1 IP card sales is about 0.1 billion yuan. Further plans are to launch famous IP cards such as “Dabong Fight More People”, “Full Time Master”, “Master of Secrets”, “Under One Man”, and “The Fox Demon Matchmaker”. From a channel perspective, Yao Ji Technology has invested in the player card trading platform, and the company has accumulated advantages in the card sales channel over the years; Huali Technology has successively launched IP cards such as “Altman Fusion Battle”, “Pokémon Gaolle”, and “My World Dungeon ARCADE”. In 2023, revenue from anime IP derivatives increased 76.2% year-on-year, and is closely cooperating with high-quality upstream IPs. The downstream has a wide range of amusement park scenarios and distribution channels. Open Source Securities suggests focusing on companies with rich high-quality IP reserves or outstanding channel advantages, and actively developing tradable card businesses, focusing on Aofei Entertainment (002292.SZ), Shanghai Film (601595.SH), Reading Group (00772), and Yao Ji Technology (002605.SZ). The beneficiaries include Huali Technology (301011.SZ).
Risk warning: Sales of newly launched cards fell short of expectations, increased competition in the card industry, etc.
