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Positive Earnings Growth Hasn't Been Enough to Get Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (SHSE:600320) Shareholders a Favorable Return Over the Last Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  Sep 25 14:49

It can certainly be frustrating when a stock does not perform as hoped. But it's hard to avoid some disappointing investments when the overall market is down. The Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600320) is down 15% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -13% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 29%. But it's up 5.4% in the last week. But this could be related to the strong market, with stocks up around 5.4% in the same time.

The recent uptick of 5.4% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 5.5% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

With a rather small yield of just 1.4% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 14% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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SHSE:600320 Earnings and Revenue Growth September 25th 2024

If you are thinking of buying or selling Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries the TSR over the last 3 years was -13%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While it's never nice to take a loss, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 2.3% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 14%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.6%, each year, over five years. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (including 1 which is significant) .

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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