If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think China Railway Signal & Communication (HKG:3969) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. To calculate this metric for China Railway Signal & Communication, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.07 = CN¥3.7b ÷ (CN¥119b - CN¥66b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Therefore, China Railway Signal & Communication has an ROCE of 7.0%. On its own that's a low return on capital but it's in line with the industry's average returns of 7.4%.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for China Railway Signal & Communication compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for China Railway Signal & Communication .

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

On the surface, the trend of ROCE at China Railway Signal & Communication doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 13% over the last five years. However it looks like China Railway Signal & Communication might be reinvesting for long term growth because while capital employed has increased, the company's sales haven't changed much in the last 12 months. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.

Another thing to note, China Railway Signal & Communication has a high ratio of current liabilities to total assets of 56%. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.

The Key Takeaway

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by China Railway Signal & Communication's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. And in the last five years, the stock has given away 13% so the market doesn't look too hopeful on these trends strengthening any time soon. All in all, the inherent trends aren't typical of multi-baggers, so if that's what you're after, we think you might have more luck elsewhere.

If you'd like to know about the risks facing China Railway Signal & Communication, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.