银河证券指出，2024年暑运收官，从暑运表现来看，民航出行呈现出旺季“供需两旺”，运力投放及旅客量较2019年进一步同比增长，符合此前预期；但疫后消费结构变化及当前国际航线缓慢恢复的局面，仍对票价水平形成一定程度的压制，板块仍位于底部位置。该行认为，2024年，伴随后疫情时代民航出行需求持续修复，叠加国际线免签利好政策频出，国际线增班逻辑进一步强化，行业需求端有望加快释放。供需格局优化叠加油汇价格改善，几重因素边际改善下，年内航司有望实现扭亏为盈。Aviation/airlines industry continues to rebound recently. As of the time of writing, Air China Limited (00753) rose by 4.91% to HKD 3.42; China Southern Airlines (01055) rose by 4.42% to HKD 2.6; China Eastern Airlines (00670) rose by 3.39% to HKD 1.83; Capital Airport (00694) rose by 1.5% to HKD 2.7.
According to the Wisdom Finance APP, the aviation/airlines industry continues to rebound recently. As of the time of writing, Air China Limited (00753) rose by 4.91% to HKD 3.42; China Southern Airlines (01055) rose by 4.42% to HKD 2.6; China Eastern Airlines (00670) rose by 3.39% to HKD 1.83; Capital Airport (00694) rose by 1.5% to HKD 2.7.
On the news side, on September 25th, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate reached a high of 6.9952 in trading, returning to the "6" range for the first time since May 2023. Zhongtai Securities previously pointed out that the continued strength of the RMB exchange rate is expected to ease the exchange rate pressure on airlines; it is expected that the upcoming National Day holiday will still see a strong demand-supply pattern.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that the end of the 2024 summer travel season shows that civil aviation travel has a peak season of 'strong demand and supply'. Capacity deployment and passenger volume have further increased compared to 2019, in line with previous expectations; however, changes in post-pandemic consumption structure and the slow recovery of current international routes continue to exert a certain degree of pressure on ticket prices, keeping the sector at the bottom position. The bank believes that in 2024, as the demand for civil aviation travel continues to recover in the post-pandemic era, coupled with frequent favorable policies for international routes visa-free entry, the logic of increasing international routes is further strengthened, and industry demand is expected to accelerate. With the optimization of the supply-demand pattern and improvements in oil and currency prices, along with multiple factors for marginal improvement, airlines are expected to turn losses into profits by the end of the year.
