美国减息0.5%及香港跟随减息0.25%，以至减息尚有下调空间，的确可刺激入市意欲，但料会先反映在交投量之上，暂未见可明显扭转楼价跌势，最多只是缓和跌幅，如第四季得以偏向窄幅横行，全年楼价料跌7%。不过，倘若新盘继续低价开售，二手仍会受压，则全年跌幅有机会扩大至近一成。The latest data released today by the Hong Kong Rating and Valuation Department shows that the private residence price index for August 2024 is 292.1, a continuation of the 1.72% decline from July's 297.2, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline, totaling a 5.65% decrease.
According to the Futu Securities APP, the latest data released today by the Hong Kong Rating and Valuation Department shows that the private residence price index for August 2024 is 292.1, a continuation of the 1.72% decline from July's 297.2, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. The property prices have hit a new low in 96 months (8 years) since September 2016. In the first 8 months of this year, property prices have cumulatively fallen by 6.17%; compared to the historical high of 398.1 points in September 2021, the cumulative decline has expanded to 26.63%. Chan Hoi-chiu, Director of the Real Estate Research Department at Ricacorp Properties, mentioned that the downward trend in property prices continues, with the effects of interest rate cuts still to be observed in the future, predicting an initial boost in trading volume in the short term due to the decrease. However, the rise in property prices will only slow down the decline, requiring the cooperation of other economic factors and conditions to achieve a full recovery.
Chan Hoi-chiu pointed out that the downward trend in property prices in August remains unchanged, mainly due to the continued low-price launches of new properties, keeping second-hand property prices under pressure. Observing the actual market conditions from late August to early September, the situation of launching new properties at low prices remains the same, therefore it is expected that property prices in September will decline by another 1%, indicating a chance for the third quarter's decline to expand to 4.40%.
The United States reduced interest rates by 0.5% and Hong Kong followed with a 0.25% cut, leaving room for further rate cuts, which could stimulate buying intentions. However, this is expected to first reflect in trading volume, rather than showing a clear reversal of the downward trend in property prices. At most, it will only ease the decline, potentially leading to a narrow sideways movement in the fourth quarter, with property prices expected to fall by 7% for the whole year. Nevertheless, if new properties continue to be launched at low prices, the second-hand market will continue to be under pressure, potentially expanding the annual decline to nearly 10%.
As for the rental index, data from the Rating and Valuation Department shows a further increase of 1.13% in August, reaching 197.5 points, the 4th highest on record since 1993, with only about 1.3% difference from the historical high of 200.1 points in August 2019. Rent has been increasing for 6 consecutive months since March this year, with a total increase of 7.10%, and a cumulative increase of 6.18% in the first 8 months of this year. Due to the demand for professionals and local housing, it is expected that rents will remain strong from September to the fourth quarter, with a final annual increase of over 9%, and a high chance of hitting a new historical high within the year.
