The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to data from Infolink and the General Administration of Customs, China exported a total of 131.9 GW of modules in the first half of '24, up 24% from 106.1 GW in the same period last year, but the export amount was 16.32 billion US dollars, down 31% from 23.7 billion US dollars in the same period in 2023; China's PV module export value dropped significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp drop in PV module prices compared to the same period last year. Looking at the industrial chain, production capacity in all links is still growing. 24H1 domestic polysilicon production is about 1.06 million tons, up about 60.6% year on year, silicon wafer production is about 402 GW, up about 58.9% year on year, battery production is about 310 GW, up about 37.8% year on year, and module output is about 271 GW, up about 32.2% year on year.

The main views of Debon Securities are as follows:

The number of new domestic PV installations continued to grow in the first 7 months, and the share of domestic PV's cumulative installed capacity increased further

According to the CPIA, on August 23, the National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics for January-July. From January to July 2024, China added 123.53GW of installed capacity, an increase of 27.1% over the previous year. Of these, in July, PV added 21.05 GW of installed capacity, an increase of 12.3% over the previous year. The number of new PV installations in China continued to grow in the first 7 months. Compared with 216.88GW of new domestic PV installations in 2023, the domestic PV installation completion rate for the first 7 months of 2024 was 56.96%.

As of July 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power generation was 3103.20 GW, of which the cumulative installed capacity of PV was 735.57 GW, accounting for 23.7% of the country's cumulative installed capacity. At the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of PV power generation was 609.49 GW, accounting for 20.88% of the country's cumulative installed capacity, and the share of PV's cumulative installed capacity increased further. As of July 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy, represented by wind power and photovoltaics, was 38.87%, up from 35.99% of the cumulative installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics at the end of 2023.

Among the new installations of photovoltaics in the first half of 2024, the new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics slightly exceeded the number of new installations of centralized photovoltaics

Looking at the structural composition of PV installations, in the first half of '24, 49.6 GW of centralized domestic PV installations were added, accounting for 48.4%, and 52.88 GW of distributed installations were added, accounting for 51.6%. Among them, household photovoltaics added 15.85 GW, accounting for 15.47%, and industrial and commercial photovoltaics added 37.03 GW of installed capacity, accounting for 36.13%. As of 24H1, domestic photovoltaics were connected to the grid for a total of 712.93 GW, of which centralized photovoltaics had a cumulative total of 403.42 GW, accounting for 56.59%, distributed photovoltaics had a cumulative total of 309.51GW, accounting for 43.41%, of which household photovoltaics had a cumulative total of 131.84 GW, accounting for 18.49%, and industrial and commercial photovoltaics had a cumulative total of 177.67 GW connected to the grid, accounting for 24.92%. Compared with the PV installed structure at the end of 2023, the share of distributed photovoltaic installations has increased.

Demand from overseas markets remained unabated in the first half of '24, and domestic PV module exports showed volume increases and prices fell

According to data from Infolink and the General Administration of Customs, China exported a total of 131.9 GW of components in the first half of '24, up 24% from 106.1 GW in the same period last year, but the export value was 16.32 billion US dollars, down 31% from 23.7 billion US dollars in the same period in 2023. From January to June 2024, China's PV module export value dropped significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp drop in PV module prices compared to the same period last year.

According to Infolink, the European market's cargo volume in the first half of this year was about 54.2 GW, down 13% from last year; the Asia Pacific market's cargo volume in the first half of this year was about 40.5 GW, up 118% from 18.6 GW last year; in the American market, the volume of goods pulled in the first half of this year was about 16.8 GW, up 17% from 14.4 GW last year; the Middle East market's cargo volume in the first half of this year was about 15.5 GW, up 163% from 5.9 GW last year; the African market's cargo volume in the first half of this year was about 5 GW, compared to last year's 4.8GW rose 4%.

The production capacity of all links in the industrial chain is still growing, and the price of the industrial chain is gradually declining

24H1 domestic polysilicon production was about 1.06 million tons, up about 60.6% year on year, silicon wafer production was about 402 GW, up about 58.9% year on year, cell production was about 310 GW, up about 37.8% year on year, and module production was about 271 GW, up about 32.2% year on year.

Production capacity in all major sectors continues to grow

Prices in the industrial chain fluctuated and declined in the first half of 2024. Using 2023/12/27-2024/8/28 as the statistical range, the average price of polycrystalline silicon fell from 65 yuan/kg to 39.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 39.23%; monocrystalline P-silicon wafer-182 mm fell from 2 yuan/wafer to 1.25 yuan/piece, a decrease of 37.5%; monocrystalline P-type silicon wafers fell from 3 yuan/wafer to 1.7 yuan/piece, a drop of 43.33%; monocrystalline N-type silicon wafers fell from 2.2 yuan/1.08 to 1.08 to 1.08 to 1.08 per piece Yuan/piece, the decrease is 50.91%; 210mm monocrystalline N-type silicon wafers dropped from 3.25 yuan/piece to 1.5 yuan/piece, a decrease of 53.85%.

182 mm of monocrystalline PERC cells fell from 0.36 yuan/W to 0.29 yuan/w, a decrease of 19.44%; 210 mm of monocrystalline PERC cells fell from 0.37 yuan/W to 0.29 yuan/W, a decrease of 21.62%; Topcon battery 182 mm fell from 0.47 yuan/W to 0.28 yuan/w, a decrease of 40.43%; photovoltaic glass 3.2mm coating fell from 26.5 yuan/square meter to 22.5 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 15.09%; photovoltaic glass 2.0mm coating from 17.5 yuan/square meter Square meters fell to 13.5 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 22.86%.

The photovoltaic sector has been adjusted in the past two years. Currently, the PB valuation is in the bottom range of nearly ten years

As of September 19, 2024, the Wind PV Index has retreated from its highest point to 64.21%, and the PB is currently 1.59. On a ten-year scale, it is at the 2.35% quantile, which is at the bottom of nearly ten years. After nearly two years of adjustments, pessimistic expectations have been fully reflected. Currently, the sector has a high margin of safety.

It is recommended to focus on several main lines: leading companies with relatively high annual performance certainty: Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), Deye (605117.SH), Foster (603806.SH), Follett (601865.SH); inverter links: Jinlang Technology (300763.SZ), Goodway (), Shangneng Electric (300827.SZ), Shenghong (300693.SZ), Hemai (Dubai), Yuneng Technology (), etc.; 688390.SH 688032.SH 688348.SH Leading companies that are expected to gradually recover profits: Longji Green Energy (601012.SH), TCL Central (002129.SZ), Jingao Technology (002459.SZ), Trina Solar (688599.SH), and Artes (688472.SH).

Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, risk of changes in industry policy, risk of increased industry competition.