Is KINGSEMI (SHSE:688037) A Risky Investment?
Is KINGSEMI (SHSE:688037) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that KINGSEMI Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688037) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由伯克希尔哈撒韦的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李录(Charlie Munger, Li Lu) 直言不讳地表示:“最大的投资风险不在于价格的波动,而在于您是否会遭受资本的永久损失。”因此,明智的资金都知道,债务(通常涉及破产)是评估公司风险的一个非常重要因素。我们注意到康信半导体股份有限公司(SHSE:688037)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但这些债务会让股东感到担忧吗?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
债务何时有危险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业增长的工具,但如果企业无法偿还借款人,那么它存在于借款人的掌控之下。如果情况变得非常糟糕,借款人可以接管企业。然而,更常见(但仍然痛苦)的情况是,企业必须以低价筹集新的股本资金,从而永久性稀释股东的所有权。然而,通过稀释的替代,债务可以成为需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业的极好工具。在考虑企业使用多少债务时的第一步是查看其现金和债务总额。
What Is KINGSEMI's Debt?
康信半导体的债务是什么?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 KINGSEMI had debt of CN¥1.04b, up from CN¥505.8m in one year. However, it also had CN¥997.9m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥45.1m.
下面的图片(您可以单击以获取更详细信息)显示,截至2024年6月,康信半导体的债务为104亿元,比一年前的50580万元增加。然而,它也有99790万元的现金,因此净债务为4510万元。
A Look At KINGSEMI's Liabilities
考察KINGSEMI的负债情况
According to the last reported balance sheet, KINGSEMI had liabilities of CN¥1.31b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥834.2m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥997.9m in cash and CN¥470.2m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥680.3m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根据最新披露的资产负债表,KINGSEMI有13000万人民币的负债在12个月内到期,以及83420万人民币的负债超过12个月到期。相对而言,其在12个月内到期的现金为99790万人民币,应收账款为47020万人民币。因此,它的负债总额超出现金和短期应收账款共计68030万人民币。
Of course, KINGSEMI has a market capitalization of CN¥12.9b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. However, we do think it is worth keeping an eye on its balance sheet strength, as it may change over time. Carrying virtually no net debt, KINGSEMI has a very light debt load indeed.
当然,KINGSEMI的市值为129亿人民币,因此这些负债可能是可控的。然而,我们认为值得密切关注其资产负债表的强壮性,因为随着时间的推移可能会发生变化。几乎没有净债务,KINGSEMI的债务负担非常轻。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
通过查看公司的净债务与利息、税、折旧、摊销前利润(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息费用(利息覆盖率)可以衡量一个公司的债务负担与收益能力。因此,我们考虑将债务与有无计算折旧和摊销费用的收益相对比。
KINGSEMI's net debt is only 0.31 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 18.5 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for KINGSEMI if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 55% cut to EBIT over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if KINGSEMI can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
KINGSEMI的净债务仅为其EBITDA的0.31倍。其EBIt轻松覆盖利息支出,是其18.5倍之多。因此,你可以说,它受到债务威胁的程度不比大象受到老鼠的威胁。如果管理层无法阻止去年EBIt削减55%的重演,那么债务负担的适度可能对KINGSEMI至关重要。在偿还债务时,下降的收益和含糖汽水对健康也同样无益。分析债务水平时,资产负债表是明显的起点。但最终,业务的未来盈利能力将决定KINGSEMI是否可以随着时间加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你专注于未来,可以查看此免费报告,显示分析师的利润预测。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, KINGSEMI burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最后,虽然税务部门可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冰冷现金。所以我们始终检查EBIt中有多少被转化为自由现金流。在过去三年中,KINGSEMI消耗了大量现金。尽管投资者无疑希望这种情况会在不久的将来逆转,但这显然意味着其债务使用更为风险。
Our View
我们的观点
While KINGSEMI's EBIT growth rate has us nervous. To wit both its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA were encouraging signs. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that KINGSEMI is taking some risks with its use of debt. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example KINGSEMI has 3 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.
尽管KINGSEMI的EBIT增长率让我们感到紧张。事实上,其利息覆盖倍数和净债务与EBITDA之比都是令人鼓舞的迹象。当我们考虑到所有讨论过的因素时,我们认为KINGSEMI在债务使用上存在一些风险。因此,虽然杠杆会提高股本回报率,但我们实际上并不希望看到它从这里增加。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表上会对债务了解最多。但并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表内 - 实际上远非如此。例如,KINGSEMI有3个警示信号(以及1个让我们有些不舒服的信号),我们认为您应该知道。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
说到底,有时候更容易集中精力关注根本不需要债务的公司。读者可以免费访问零净债务增长股票列表。
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