Jilin Quanyangquan Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600189) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the last month. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 4.0% over the last year.
Since its price has surged higher, given around half the companies in China's Forestry industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, you may consider Jilin Quanyangquan as a stock to avoid entirely with its 5.4x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
What Does Jilin Quanyangquan's Recent Performance Look Like?
For instance, Jilin Quanyangquan's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Jilin Quanyangquan's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Is Jilin Quanyangquan's Revenue Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Jilin Quanyangquan would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 15%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 35% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 13% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Jilin Quanyangquan's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Jilin Quanyangquan's P/S?
Shares in Jilin Quanyangquan have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Jilin Quanyangquan currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Jilin Quanyangquan with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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